Inside Pitch

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Inside Pitch last won the day on June 5 2018

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About Inside Pitch

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    Baseball, Music, The Beach.. Anywhere with big sky.

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  1. Inside Pitch

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Honestly, in the grand scheme of things none of it matters because whatever system you prefer it's just an educated guess. In terms of the actual conversation, it matters because they are using different methodologies to reach their conclusion.. Not unlike someone using bWAR to make a guy look better by comparing those numbers to say fWAR -- the devil is in the details. In the FG system they went from 82 wins to 83 since adding Gonzalez, so still behind the Angels... Using PECOTA, the Twins were already ahead of the Angels, so nothing has really changed in either system -- one views the Angels marginally ahead the other has them slightly behind the Twins. As far as one being trash or the other... A lot of people believe that PECOTA has suffered in Nate Silver's absence, I agree they used to be much more accurate but we have also seen the game change in some pretty dramatic ways and I think the fluctuations may be the result of the lack of PEDs, advent of launch angles, and changes in bullpen usage more than any faults in their system. My personal opinion, take all of them -- ZIPS, Steamer, Pecota, Marcel, Clay Davenport, combine them and go with the median figure... Doing it that way may be just accurate as any one system. Yeah, not sure what they are basing that defensive data on -- massive regression from Calhoun, continued decline from Upton? Maybe they looked at Cozart's small sample at 3B and gave that a lot of credence -- it's definitely wonky but, defensive metrics are wonky by nature. As far as the Twins go... They added a 2.5 War player but the only way to get him those at bats is to sit one of their other 2.5 WAR players at the positions he plays, or see one of them fail and have him replace them. I think some may be adding 2.5 WAR to the total but it doesnt work that way.. The Twins won't be getting an additional 500 at bats compared to the rest of the league -- they will, have the option of replacing poor at bats with better ones -- maybe. Good signing for them IMO, but sort of a lateral move since he's not replacing a black hole and will go into next year without a clearly defined position. Twins offense has a ton of potential upside and possible break outs -- lots of guys in that age frame where big upticks in performance are commonplace. Pitching wise both teams are full of question-marks - they are IMO very similar teams but as you point out -- they play in a much weaker division. The one team in the Central that may push more than they are being given credit for is Detroit... They could see a lot of their farm guys come up and surprise.
  2. Inside Pitch

    2018 Hot Stove League

    You're quoting two different sources with two vastly different systems.. Your first post mentioned FG, now you're posting a link to Baseball Prospectus... Pecota ALREADY had the Twins ahead of the Angels before the Gonzalez signing,... also Pecota has the Cubs winning 79 games...
  3. Molina was a college SS in Arizona.
  4. Inside Pitch

    Machado to Padres....

    Today I learned that the Padres haven't been waiting for their farm to kick in.... Nope.. Truly a team to aspire to. The last 11 years where they have refused to spend and been mired in two different rebuilds never happened -- Nope... While the Angels have been dealing with "lean years" waiting on their farm, the Padres have gone through a glorious halcyon period that saw them win more than 77 games ONCE. Again, truly they are a franchise to be envied. If only the Angels would have have the guts to run out bottom five payrolls for half that time... then maybe they would have been trying to win. Damn the facts, push the narratives...
  5. Inside Pitch

    2018 Hot Stove League

    A qualifying offer....
  6. Inside Pitch

    Expectations for Skaggs and Henaey

    Id be amazed if they top 180 innings barring postseason innings. I think the Angels will try to keep all their SP fresher, use the pen more. Its more a case of where the game is heading than anything else. Even if that wasn't the case, if all they can muster is 180 solid innings then it's a big win for a Halos pitching staff that hasnt seen that in what feels like an eon.
  7. Inside Pitch

    Expectations for Skaggs and Henaey

    One of the absolute best LHPs in MLB history had a 99 ERA+ through 600+ innings after his age 27 season. He won five Cy Youngs, first one at age 31, four after age 35. From age 28 through 38 he posted an ERA+ of 161 and pitched until he was 45 -- obviously he's an extreme outlier but pitchers breaking out after age 27 isn't that rare. ___ Corey Kluber had a 89 ERA+ through age 27. Broke out at age 28. Trevor Bauer had a 99 ERA+ after 725+ innings through age 26. Broke out at age 27 Max Scherzer had a 110 ERA+ over 700+ innings through age 27 -- 146 ERA+ from 28 on. Patrick Corbin had a 104 ERA+ over 700+ innings throgh age 27 -- Broke out at age 28 Those are just the guys among the Cy Young voting last year.. Heaney has thrown 342 innings total in his MLB career. Skaggs 441. They are anything but finished products and MLB is littered with pitchers who didnt break out until after their age 27 seasons.
  8. The comments you chose to focus on are also common for a player in his situation.
  9. From the article Trout says.... I like it here I like the direction the team is going I like the guys Billy has brought in and he's made the team better I think the biggest problem has been the injuries I think we can win if we stay healthy. Oh yeah, I get harassed daily about Philly. But he didn't say OMG I WANNA SIGN NAAAAAAOOO... So, concerning...
  10. Inside Pitch

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Agreed 100% on Fehr.. Miller learned a lot from the steel workers situation and how it blew up in their faces. I think that helped build that broad view you speak of.... which I totally agree with.
  11. Inside Pitch

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Miller was pro player sure, but he believed the game would be better if there would be greater player movement among other things -- he was right. Dude should be in the HOF.
  12. Inside Pitch

    2018 Hot Stove League

    This is completely.... MLBPA should make this book https://www.amazon.com/Whole-Different-Ball-Game-Revolution/dp/1566635993 required reading for all their players... There is no way things get where they are if Miller were still at the head of the players union.
  13. Inside Pitch

    Angels in on Moose

    Meanwhile Khris Davis is becoming public enemy number 1 to the MLBPA while cementing his status as a cult hero in Oakland... Dude was quoted as saying this “I don’t want to break the bank. I want to be happy playing baseball. I’m not trying to max out the dollars,” Davis said. “$16 million, this is the top for me. I don’t want more than that. I’ll probably have to take a cut, and that’s fine, as long as I’m here.” Davis is talking about taking a deal for as low as 10 mil per if they were to extend it through 2021. Not sure the A's would go there given how FA has gone for players but, it's interesting to see a guy essentially accept the market has changed and publicly saying he just wants to be happy.