Hubs

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About Hubs

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    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 11/11/1979

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    Los Angeles County, California
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    Angels, 49ers, Clippers, Jazz, UCSB Basketball.

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  1. Jeff, if he pitches once a week, say 25 starts, instead of the 27 Sundays or whatever day, wouldn't he be closer to 140-160 IP? I mean, you have to think he's gonna be 5 IP per start minimum, probably closer to 6 IP avg. And If he starts as the DH 3.5 times per week, gets 5 PA a game, 3.5 x 5 x 27 = around 470 PA.
  2. Machete is terrible offensively, he had a few hot months then nothing. Stassi seems built the same. Smith is under arbitration control and likely won't get a huge raise so he'll be back. Grandal is a decent option. The power would be nice. The infield is crowded, especially with Cozart and La Stella coming back. Calhoun is going to hit 30 HR. I don't think they'll cut him. They may trade him, if they can find a suitor, but otherwise he might be back for one more run in Anaheim. The budget pretty much gets capped after that for offensive help.
  3. Among arms unlikely to be back, Trevor Cahill leads the way with 69 runs allowed in almost 95 innings (6.56 runs per 9 innings). Matt Harvey allowed 48 runs in just under 60 innings, (7.24 runs per 9 innings). Subtracting those two and replacing with Gerritt Cole is certainly going to help, as he would've allowed less than half the runs those two did if he were here this year, and replicating his Houston numbers. Luis Garcia, started the season horribly, but has had a hot stretch lately and lowered his ERA to 4.31 and (31 runs in 56.1 IP). Still, he's not likely back. I don't see Tropeano (15 runs in 13.2 IP) staying healthy and returning. Chris Stratton (28 runs in 29.1 IP) was horrible too. Cody Allen was bad (16 runs in 23 IP) That's a total of 207 runs in 276.2 IP. A runs per game of 6.73. Add Taylor Cole, Jaime Barria, and Jake Jewell ....who all have a possibility of returning, at Cole's 34 runs in 45.1 IP, Barria's 50 runs in 70.1 IP, Jewell's 15 runs in 19.2 IP...the number increased to 306 runs in 412 IP. That's 6.68 Runs Per 9 IP. The rest of the team, including Suarez at 6.45 ERA (52 runs in 68.1 IP), Anderson's 27 runs in 41.1 IP... ends up being significantly lower. Those two are likely to be back, but should improve their performances, I'd expect. 878.2 IP and 464 runs allowed, which is a 4.75 runs per game. Addition by subtraction will help, but adding in Cole, Ohtani, and maybe someone like Syndergaard, would go a long way to dropping that 4.75 Runs per 9 IP to low 4's...which would put them in the playoffs.
  4. Ausmus has done such a terrible job with this pitching staff, I don't know if it can be fixed in one off-season. The worst pitching season in Angels history came in 1996, when they gave up 943 runs under Marcel Lachemann / McNamara / and Joe Maddon. They averaged 5.857 runs allowed. In 1994, they allowed 660 runs in just 115 games, for an almost as bad 5.739 runs per game, also under Lachemann and Buck Rodgers. The third worst season was Scioscia's first, at 5.364 runs per game in 2000, when they surprisingly went 82-80. They allowed 869 runs. The fourth worst season was Terry Collins' last at 826 runs allowed, 5.099 in 1999. Those are the only 4 seasons in club history they've allowed over 5 runs per game. Except of course, this one. The current team might edge out 2000 as they currently have allowed 770 runs in just 145 games for a 5.310 runs allowed per game. They could easily be third worst pitching season in Angels history. Last year, in a season where they lost 7 starters to injury, They allowed just 722 runs in 162 games, for a 4.457 runs per game average. That means Ausmus and White, with some of the same guys, and some new ones, have been nearly a run worse than Scioscia's injury decimated 2018 team. This is not just the juiced ball. They need to cut the runs allowed by nearly 200 in 2020. All the investment should go to pitching. I might bring back Calhoun. They need a catcher. Other than that, it's all pitching, pitching, pitching.
  5. Hubs

    The Other Guy (not Cole)

    You have to look at the Angels pitching staff as a mix of veterans, peak age guys, and youth. This season, we lost a peak age guy (RIP #45), the veterans didn't work out, and the youth has had to carry the load. Next year, you are probably looking at a Veteran FA signing / Trade, and a Prime-Era FA signing / Trade if they can do it. Then they'll go with one peak age guy they have in the rotation now, in Heaney. And add younger starters in Canning, Ohtani, Sandoval, and Suarez. If they go to 6 starters, or even 5.5, I don't know if they plan on signing two guys. I'd prefer it, but don't know. Getting Cole would certainly help this rotation, but so would Bumgarner or Keuchel. Just a guy who, like Heaney, can go out and give you 30+ starts. Ohtani is going to get 24-27 starts. That's say, 86, if Cole gives you 32, and Heaney gives you 30. That leaves 76 games for Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Pena, and JC, plus whomever else. I think the young guys are all going to be on the SLC shuttle, with Pena and JC filling in, too. I can see Pena / JC starting say 16, and the other three young ones averaging 20. One of those three could be dealt too. The opener skews the starting numbers, but how many starts do you think leads the team? It's Canning's 18. Pena leads in IP with 96. They need two guys to give them 30+ starts. In their last playoff year, they had that with Richards and Santiago both hitting 32+ with 207 and 180 IP in the mid 3.5 ERA range. Weaver and Shoemaker had 26 and 24, with ERA's in the mid 4's, Wilson had 21, in the high 3's, and Heaney had 18, in the mid 3's. If they can repeat or exceed this, they'll be in the playoffs. Cole at 33 starts, with a sub 3 ERA would be fantastic. Ohtani at 27 starts with a sub 3 ERA would be fantastic. Heaney at 28 starts with a high 3's to low 4's would be great. Canning at 27 starts with a mid 3's to high 3''s would be great. Suarez/Sandoval/Barria/Pena/JC Ramirez/Peters with 47 starts at a combined 4.20 ERA would be fantastic. Don't see room for another veteran starter, unless someone gets bumped or traded.
  6. Hubs

    Cole

    I do not think it's Cole or Bust. Bumgarner and Ryu are legit frontline starter options too. Bumgarner had a rough start to the year, but his numbers are legit and he is only 1 year older than Cole. He has already turned 30, whereas Cole won't turn 29 until next month. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml Ryu is 32. Next year is his age 33 season. Odorrozzi, Keuchel, Etc. are other options, and there are a lot of other midrange options. I can't see the Angels committing 3+ years to anyone except Cole, Bumgarner, Ryu, and Odorrozzi, and maybe Miley and If the Braves don't pick up his option, Julio Tehran. I could also see a trade in the off season for pitching.
  7. Hubs

    The age of our rotation

    I thought they could've competed for a wild card because I saw this offensive surge happening. They're gonna top 800 runs scored likely, which I figured even with a bad pitching year like they had in 2018, they could compete for both wild cards, and if Houston losing Keuchel and teh other guys they lost, they could compete for the division on the outside. Last year they gave up 722 runs, and scored 721. This year they're going to score over 800 but also allow over 800. I hoped Cahill and Harvey could give us 50 starts in the 4.2-4.5 ERA range. I hoped that Allen could return to 2017 form. Instead all three have been objectively terrible, and they lost their best starter to a tragic in season death, so this season's pitching has been 100-200 runs worse than what I hoped for. Signing two good starters in the offseason to go with two returning 2018 starters in Heaney and Ohtani, and two returning 2019 starters in Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria is a recipe for success. I'd like Bumgarner and Cole, if only because I think Bumgarner commands less years, and Cole is the best starter available. I'd also consider Cole and Keuchel. If they can give one guy 5 or 6 years, in Cole, and the other guy 3-4 years the rotation lines up for the next 4 years like this: 2020: Cole (age 29 season), Ohtani (age 25 season), Bumgarner (age 30 season), Heaney (age 29 season), Canning (Age 24 season), Suarez (Age 22 Season) 2021: Cole (age 30 season), Ohtani (age 26 season), Bumgarner (age 31 season), Heaney (age 30 season), Canning (Age 25 season), Suarez (Age 23 Season) 2022: Cole (age 31 season), Ohtani (age 27 season), Bumgarner (age 32 season), Canning (Age 26 season), Suarez (Age 24 Season) 2023: Cole (age 32 season), Ohtani (age 28 season), Canning (Age 27 season), Suarez (Age 25 Season), Rookie/FA, Rookie/FA Looks good to me.
  8. Hubs

    The age of our rotation

    The payroll has been higher than that in recent seasons. He's gonna have to break the bank if he wants to go back to the playoffs, because young pitching isn't gonna all suddenly get significantly better. ANGELS PAYROLLS Year 25-man Opening Day 40-man Year End (rank) 2019 $158,878,583 $ ( ) 2018 $166,649,999 $176,748,648 ( 2017 $166,375,833 $188,553,926 ( 7) 2016 $164,673,333 $185,760,439 ( 7)
  9. Hubs

    The age of our rotation

    The 26th guy will be one of the club control guys. They could keep an extra catcher for portions of the season, a fifth OF, a seventh INF, or a 14th pitcher. OF: Trout, Upton, Goodwin, Walsh/Hermosillio -- Adell by June 15th. INF: Pujols, Fletcher, La Stella, Simmons, Thaiss, Rengifo Catchers: Stassi, Smith DH/SP: Ohtani SP: Cole (FA), Bumgarner (FA), Heaney, Canning, Suarez / Sandoval RP: Robles, Buttrey, Bedrosian, Meijia, Anderson, Cole, N. Ramirez, Pena
  10. Hubs

    The age of our rotation

    I forgot this, Good point. Though the conclusion is the same. No Super Two.
  11. Hubs

    The age of our rotation

    Bumgarner has been as good as Cole for years and is only two years older. He won't command as much money. Honestly, if you can get them for $50 M combined per year on the AAV... I'd say do it. Corbin got $140 for 6 last offseason. Cole is better, so say $5 M more average at $28M per for 6/168. Bumgarner gets 4/88. Gonna have to overpay a bit to get him to come to AL, but maybe he wants to DH when Ohtani starts, lol. Maybe you pay them a little less in real dollars in 20 and 21, say $20 and $22 for Cole for 20 and 21, then 27 in 22, then 30 in 23, $33 in 24, and $36 in 2025..... 6/ 168. $19M for 20, $21M for 21, $23 for 22, and $25 for Bumgarner. 4 /88. Anyway-- here's a quick roster breakdown for 2020 and beyond. For 2020, you have 29, 21, 37.667, 15, and 12.667, and 1 M committed to Pujols, Upton, Trout, Simmons, Cozart, and Calhoun respectively for a total of $116.334 for 5 roster spots. They have a lot of players under arbitration, more than usual. Heaney, Bour, JC Ramirez, Bedrosian, La Stella and Garcia are eligible for arbitration 3rd year. Heaney and Cam are definites to bring back and La Stella and Ramirez are likely. I'd estimate say $15M for four guys. Robles and Tropeano will be eligible for the second time. I doubt Tropeano is brought back. Robles will cost 4M maybe as high as $5 but I doubt it. Stassi, Smith, Middleton, Noe Ramirez, and Goodwin will be eligible for the first time. Maybe these 5 guys get $12M combined. At worst then, you have $31M for an additional 10 spots. All of the 2018 rookies, 2019 rookies, and 2020 rookies will be under club control. None should be Super 2 players, as Ohtani missing time to injury probably keeps him from the total number of days needed, but even if he's super 2, shouldn't be that expensive. It's not likely he's a super 2. That includes Ohtani (18), Bard (18), Pena (18), Anderson(18), Fletcher (18), Meija (18), Cole (18), Buttrey (18), Hermosillio (18), Barria (18), Bemboon (19), Canning (19), Jewell (19), Peters?, Rengifo (19), Sandoval (19), Suarez (19), Thaiss (19), Walsh (19), and Ward(18). Plus any 2020 rookies like Jo Adell, etc. This is the bulk of the roster, and I can see the remaining 8 spots go to this group. They'll get paid like $5M total. They sign the two free agent pitchers to the $40M in real salary, and $50 in AAV. 2020 max payroll for the 25 man roster in real dollars should be around $192, AAV will be around $10M more, still well under the Luxury tax line. They may add a catcher, or something else, but I doubt it. In 2021, They'd be at a slightly higher payroll for the same team, if they bring back Simmons, which may push them over the luxury tax line, and they'll likely have to pay Ohtani. Yet, this would only be a one year penalty if at all, and they'd be out from under the Cozart contract so it may be just under the luxury tax line. And in 2022, they get out from under Pujols' money, so they'd be back under the luxury tax line again for sure. They'd be essentially rolling with the same team in 2020 and 2021, with few off-season changes.
  12. Hubs

    The age of our rotation

    Bumgarner and Cole are my two picks.
  13. Hubs

    The age of our rotation

    Also, remember, this year is on pace to be the worst pitching output from the Angels since 2000, and has a chance to top that one too. It's going to be the 3rd or 4th worst pitching season in Angels History.
  14. Hubs

    The age of our rotation

    With Skaggs, they still needed a FA Ace to make this pitching staff competitive for 2020 when Ohtani returns. Without Skaggs, they need two guys. I know Barria is in a 2nd season slump. Canning, Suarez, Sandoval are rookies. Ohtani will only be in his 2nd pitching season. I'd think they're going to go to 6 starters again, with Ohtani. Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Suarez, Sandoval is an ok rotation, but adding one more mid tier guy helps significantly.
  15. Prospects are currency for the major league club. 1 in 5 succeeds. These guys aren't going to all put up the same numbers in Arizona as they have in the minors, and we need pitching. Badly. He was the most obtainable guy and I think we could've offered a decent package and taken on a little more money and made it happen.