Hubs

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Everything posted by Hubs

  1. Hubs

    2018 Hot Stove League

    I bet award has a better OPS line than Fletcher in 2019. Fletcher will hit to a .690 OPS while ward will be closer to .790. Something like .350/.440./.790 where as Fletcher will be .325/.365/.690.
  2. Hubs

    Ohtani DH question

    Let’s assume May 1 then, what does the April Roster look like. Will Pujols and Bour basically be the starting every day DH and 1B? Will both Ward and Fletcher make the team then? Or does Matt Thais or Jared Walsh break with the big club? Three Catchers? I know this will all be solved in ST, but also think that they could be in the market for one more OF bat who can also play 1st.
  3. Hubs

    Payroll update

    Yeah, Jeff's number is right on. Ettin's number is off because he had every one on the 40-man earning 555k, which they don't. The 15 guys not on the active roster, earn between 60-150k when they are in the minors, and the league minimum in the minors. So he's adding roughly 8 M to the payroll number. Also his benefits number is $6M short. Trout, Pujols, Upton, Simmons, Calhoun, Cozart are on multi-year contracts. Their AAV payroll number is then different. 116.25M Actual Payroll, 90.25M AAV Payroll. Bour, Lucroy, Cahill, Harvey, LaStella, Heaney, Skaggs, Robles, Bedrosian, Garcia, Tropeano, JC Ramirez, and Allen are all on one year deals signed from FA or in lieu of arbitration. 50.601 Actual and AAV Payroll. That's 19 players, 17 of which are likely to make the Major League Roster out of ST. One will be on the 60-Day DL. And Tropeano will likely be at SLC as he has option years remaining. All arbitration one year deals are guaranteed, unless they cut them in ST. Kevan Smith, David Fletcher, Shoehei Ohtani, are all likely to make the club out of ST, while pitchers Jaime Barria, Felix Pena, Justin Anderson, Ty Buttrey, Noe Ramirez, Dillon Peters, John Curtiss, Taylor Cole, and Williams Jerez may also make the team, and Taylor Ward and Peter Bourjos (who is not on the 40-man roster) or Michael Hermosillio, and Jose Briceno may also make the club. Keynan Middleton (a likely ML 60-Day candidate) will be on the DL, and could be on the major league DL to save a 40-man spot. Ohtani could open on the DL as well, but it would be the 15-man. Let's just say 8 of the above do make the club at 555k, that's $4.440 million, plus say Keynan Middleton makes the club on the ML 60-Day DL, that's around 5 Million. There are 17 guys listed there, 16 of which are on the 40-Man. The 8 not on the opening day roster make around $150k, since they've all been in the majors before. The other guys like Jose Suarez, Luis Rengifo, Luis Madero, Jesus Castillo, and Jake Jewell all make less. Actually Jewell did see some Major league time, so put him in the 150k group. If any of these guys get called up to the majors, they get a pro-rated 555k plus a pro-rated 150k for their work in the minors. So if say, Hermosillo is active for 36 days or 20% of the season, he's get 20% of 555k or 111k plus 80% of 150k or 120k, for a total of 231K. The 9 who don't make the club but are listed above are similar in contract value. 9 x $150 = $1.35+4 x 60= $1.5 M in minor league salaries for 40-man guys. If any of these guys are cut, in favor of say Walsh, or Thaiss, or Canning, their contract is not guaranteed. But, say one or two of the guys I put in the 8 to make the club gets sent down, in favor of Hermosillo for those 36 days, then basically, his salary is reduced by that amount. So you don't count it twice. The only way this is counted twice is if the club control player is hurt in the majors, and goes on the DL, then call-ups would be additional salary. But this is a negligible amount. Looking at Cots' figures, it Basically if you perform in ST and don't have an option, you are likely from that group to make the team. Of the guys listed as club control - Smith is out of minor league options and Noe Ramirez is out...meaning they are likely to be in the major leagues. There are a few of the arbitration group also out of options, like Bedrosian, Robles and Garcia, who all will be in the majors. The 25-man Payroll then is 116.25+50.601+5M = $172M plus the 14M in Benefits. That's 186M Actual Payroll, but the $172 M is the number most people articles use to describe "Payroll" and when you see articles saying we were around $165-$167 the last three years, this is the number they were talking about.
  4. Hubs

    Team has gotten worse?

    Fangraphs also has the run differential at 35. If you look at the Value stats, Runs Against Average in particular, the Angels ended up last year 34 runs above average. 11 players who accounted for -88 RAA are gone. 4 guys who accounted for 13 positive RAR are also gone. That's net -75 just clearing out the underperforming guys. The guys that are back that were significantly negative are Cozart, Calhoun, Pujols, and Ward. The Angels are expecting better seasons from all four.
  5. Hubs

    1961

    Harper would be a great addition to this team, even at an AAV of $35. They likely could squeeze it under the cap, as well, if they moved Calhoun and most of his salary. But the addition of Harper would also mean Jo Adell has no position, and that they likely couldn't pursue Gerritt Cole or Nolan Arrenado next year.
  6. Cozart's best case is a return to 2017 form and wins the Gold Glove at 2nd or 3rd. Calhoun's best case is probably that his two months of being at top 10 outfielder in baseball turn into 4 months, and he's league average the other two.
  7. Hubs

    Why didn't the Angels go after Harper/Machado.

    Thanks guys, I thought i was just being a dick.
  8. Hubs

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Allen and Norris would both be worth taking a flyer on. Similar to Andrew Bailey or Norris from 2017.
  9. Hubs

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Miller and Allen are both still available. I don't see the Angels grabbing either, but maybe.
  10. Angels had 26 blown saves and 61 save opportunities. The Save % at 57.8% was 27th in baseball. Texas, surprisingly was #1, with a 75% conversion rate. Seattle and Washington were tied for #2 at 74.07%. Seattle had 21 blown saves in 81 opportunities.
  11. So, I looked at the payroll earlier today, and was surprised to see that the entire pitching staff, not just the Pen, was constructed for between $30 and $40 for 2017, 2018, and 2019. The pen in 2019 is going to cost less than $10M ($12M if JC Ramirez is a RP not a SP). It's been between $24 in 2017 and 2018 $13.6. It was $71 in 2016, with $52 of that being the rotation and $19 being pen. In 2015, $60 was spent on the rotation and $18 of that was pen.
  12. Hubs

    Why didn't the Angels go after Harper/Machado.

    I couldn't disagree with your opinion (and the opinion shared by the author of this piece) more strongly, that's why I asked. This article reads like a child unhappy with not getting a new toy. And blames the owners for not bumping payroll into the stratosphere to satisfy fans wants and needs. Even though free agency has been shown to be the worst way to build a team.
  13. ...expect them to sign Trout to an immediate extension for $5M more than they offered AAV.
  14. Hubs

    2018 Hot Stove League

    His ask was for $326. I don't think he comes close to that, but he will get more than 7/175. 8/228-248 is my guess.
  15. Hubs

    Why didn't the Angels go after Harper/Machado.

    Did you write this article? Upton makes $21M average for four more seasons, and is likely to do 3-5 WAR seasons for the majority of that time. In the next 4 years, we'd likely get 25-28 WAR total out of either Harper or Machado. So while it's an improvement, it's not a significant one. Especially Harper, who is coming off a 1.3 WAR season in 2018 and a 4.7 WAR season in 2017 (and 1.5 in 2016). His only truly elite season was in 2015, when he posted 10 WAR. Machado has had three great seasons in the last 4, at 5.7 WAR in 2018, 3.4 in 2017, and then two truly elite years at 6.9 and 7.1 in 2016 and 2015. Hopefully both of these guys do well in free agency dollars wise, but adding one of them would not likely have pushed the Angels over the salary tax threshold, but it would've been close at 31.5 M. If they could find a taker for Calhoun, that would probably be the difference in 2019. But Jo Adell should be here in 2019 or 2020, and if he does a Juan Soto / Ronald Acuna impression, and puts up a 3.0 WAR rookie season, that value is a much better add, as he's paid 555k. And he plays the same position as Harper. Adding Machado wouldn't impact Adell position wise, but it would affect the amount of money the Angels have to throw at a front line starter in 2020 or 2021. That ultimately is why they don't add these two guys. For the past few seasons, the amount of money dedicated to pitching was very low. For 2019, at $164 or so million in payroll, only 33.5 +5 @ 555k or 36.275M is allocated to the pitching staff. In 2018, the $167 or so million in payroll, only 30M or so was allocated. In 2017, it was $42 million of $166. Only in 2016, prior to Eppler, was the portion of payroll allocated higher, at $71M of $165. And $41M of that was to two players, Weaver and Wilson.
  16. I missed 5 top FA? Like that year, they’re the top 5 FA on the market and weren’t already an Angel? They actually don’t often resign their own free agents: Glaus, Teixiera, Figgins, Guerrero, are some examples. Simmons, Upton, Ohtani don’t count as they were traded for and in Uptons case resigned, and Ohtani wasn’t big money. Matthews and Escobar weren’t top free agents.
  17. They in their nearly 60 year history have signed 6 major free agents? 7? In the last 30 years: Mo Vaughan Vlad Guerrero Bartolo Colon Torrii Hunter Albert Pujols CJ Wilson Josh Hamilton
  18. There have been so many different looks, for the Angels over the years, I wonder if the posters on here like the current uniform, or the Red Tops, or the Periwinkle the best. I read an article earlier today which has the Padres going back to Brown, maybe in 2020. So it made me ask, which Angels uniform is your favorite? Which do you wish they'd wear more of? https://medium.com/@jbrooksyy/angels-all-time-uniform-ranking-c9bc252dd1b9
  19. Hubs

    Fletcher versus Ward

    I think this is a open competition, between LaStella, Ward, Fletcher, and Rengifo for two spots. LaStella has an edge on one because of his major league experience. Fletcher is definitely leading for the other. But if Ward or Rengifo dominate in ST while Fletcher or LaStella struggle, it will be a much harder choice. That being said, I think Cozart gets 100 starts at 2nd, a10-15 at third and a 10-15 few at short. Ward may not open as the starting 3B but he’ll start 90-100 games there. Fletcher will start 45-55 at both 2nd and 3rd and LaStella gets remainder 10-15 at each spot, and maybe a few in the OF.
  20. Hubs

    lol A's (Kyler Murray)

    I want to say this happened to Howie Kendrick.
  21. Hubs

    Fletcher versus Ward

    Great Minds think Alike
  22. Hubs

    2018 Hot Stove League

    They paid a premium to get him for one year, but he’s probably looking at 3/45 minimum with another good year.
  23. Ya that’s assuming he’s back in 12-14 months. June is best case, and it could be August or September easily, with just a small setback.
  24. Hubs

    lol A's (Kyler Murray)

    I thought Vick ran in the 4.15-4.20 range, but I guess it was Bo Jackson I was thinking of. Ok, so 4.25-4.3...still elite speed, which he supposedly has.