IheartLA

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  1. IheartLA

    Getting to wildcard contention using ZIPs!

    There is no way our spending budget is $30-40 million. Total payroll has been ~$165M the last 3 years. We're already close to that w/ actual current year payroll. The luxury tax AAV is an accounting trick. It is irrelevant to us, only relevant to teams like the Yankees/Dodgers/Sox/Cubs that are spending at that rate. We didn't get close to the tax number last year and won't this year. The real number that matters is actual payroll. Depending on how the benefits is calculated, we have large evidence to believe that we are already at somewhere between $155M-$165M actual payroll. Eppler has mentioned in the past that he also likes to leave room for flexibility for midseason trades. The more I think about it the less likely I think Eppler will get anyone over a few million/year this offseason. I think he'll do his thing getting under the radar low profile pitchers like he's been doing w/ Garcia/Peters. No one costing a big financial commitment.
  2. IheartLA

    Jeff Passan: Why Aren't Contracts Going Up?

    Bingo. Revenue sharing is almost a joke, no small market team is even using their money which was supposed to be given them to spend so they could "compete" rather than tank.
  3. IheartLA

    Jeff Passan: Why Aren't Contracts Going Up?

    If you look back around the 2014 season that was when a lot of money was being thrown around from Miggy/Stanton/Kershaw/Trout/etc. Baseball had no problem extending players with huge money even before that player was set to his FA with AAV close to what they would have gotten if they were FA. Players were happy to sign deals giving away a few years of FA away because it wasn't a big deal before. The way the game is now teams are going year to year, star players aren't extending because just 3-4 years ago a good player had no problem getting a good deal at ~30 years old. If anything Trout signed his deal because it lined him up to get a standard 10 year contract to wrap him up till age 40ish which is the benchmark age that players shoot for before retiring. If JD Martinez was a FA in 2014 even at age 30 like he was this past year he would have had no problem getting the $200M deal that Boras was expecting. I honestly think that Trout hitting FA at age 26 was the only player that could have had a chance to break $400/$500 million. He literally didn't have a bad or average year ever, unlike every other player who have had their peaks/valleys.
  4. IheartLA

    Eovaldi signs with Red Sox

    I would have paid him $17 million a season not based on his history of performance, but on what I expect him to do from 2019-2022 for his age 29-32 seasons. I expect him to be very good. Who else would you rather have at this point? With $17M I'd rather have Eovaldi than Lance Lynn/Gio Gonzalez/James Shields or some combo like that. Keuchel isn't signing for less. Kikuchi will be a little less but with the posting fee it's going to be around that number. The angels aren't operating under the luxury tax guidelines, actual real $ payroll matters to Arte. We have less money to spend than a lot of people on this board project in their posts. We might only have ~$17M to spend and I'd rather go for a guy who could be the best SP on the staff and let Skaggs/Heaney/Tropeano/Pena/Barria + Canning/Suarez fill out the rotation.
  5. IheartLA

    Eovaldi signs with Red Sox

    Or you could nitpick every pitcher and be left with no one. You gotta spend at least that if you want a pitcher that has a high enough potential that most on this board want. If 17 million is too rich then we're going to be looking at a potential market of nothing but #4/5 starters. Bargain bin shopping.
  6. IheartLA

    Eovaldi signs with Red Sox

    Teams are not paying for what you did in the past. How many times when a player has a good year but the peripherals suggest that he will regress, like a high BABIP, people say the good year doesn't matter and he's not worth the money. But fans never look at the inverse of that statement, which is where the future #'s are better than the past #'s. Therefore player X deserves money based on the future value regardless of what he did in the past. The fact of the matter is, what Eovaldi did in the past is pretty much irrelevant to GMs. They are paying for essentially player's Steamer/Pecota/etc. projection numbers. Not what the back of the baseball card stat lines say. Teams are paying for what the analytics are predicting you will do in the future. Eovaldi has #5 starter career stats, who cares? The GM's don't. If we nitpick and say we don't want to spend money, we'll be left with the same stable of arms we had last year, which will obviously not be good.
  7. 28 man rosters means a pitching change every batter in the late innings. I'm on board with earlier free agency or minor league years counting towards service time. Something like the half season you were drafted + 1 year right after not counting towards the clock. But anything after that will start accumulating towards FA.
  8. The fact that half the league won't spend even 50% of revenue on salary needs to be addressed in the next CBA. Also when fans/media discuss payroll salaries they need to adjust contract values for inflation. A $1 in 2000 is not the same as $1 in 2018. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jose-altuve-signs-updated-joey-votto-deal/ Time Value of Money and Present Value need to be taken into consideration. The agents and front offices are certainly doing so. $252M in 2000 when ARod signed his deal would be $370M in 2018 to be equal value.
  9. Why are you so focused on just one side of the coin. The billionaire owners and the teams are getting more and more of the leverage year by year. Teams that want to tank aren't spending anything because the minor league system and the service time is so heavily in their favor. Look at any MLBtraderumors payroll projection for a given team where they have the payroll year by year and almost every team is spending less in the current year than almost 10-15 years ago. This doesn't account for inflation or revenue increases where theory would be that teams should be spending way more now than in 2008. I think something has to be done with the service time with the minor leagues. It has to count towards it in some capacity, it would make the game younger and more exciting also. Teams would call up their top prospects faster and the players would get paid more relative to their contributions. Adell and Canning would already be up and two older fringe veterans like Young/Mcguire would have been pushed out sooner. Ditto every team's top prospects. We won't get rid of a good veteran for any old minor leaguer, but the top 1-2 prospects in every organization would be up faster and it would be good for the game. This will also prevent situations like Kris Bryant or Vlad Guerrero happening, fans would get to the see the young exciting talent earlier. Teams also should have to spend a salary floor based on a number such as revenue from the prior year. Like 80% or 2017's revenue is your 2018 salary floor. No reason a team should sit on their earnings to tank and get rewarded for it. When do fans in 2018 bring up how low the payroll was in 2013 and say all those savings are now going to be utilized in the current year? Never, when we as fans calculate 2019's payroll and who we can sign, we always just use the current numbers, we never say we were under payroll by X amount in 2016/2017 and those savings will mean we will spend more.
  10. IheartLA

    Qualifying offer/draft pick loss

    The current system is 100% heading for a lockout. The minors don't accrue any service time, arbitration is stuck in the 1900's but teams use analytics to drive the player's value down when they see fit. I laughed a couple years ago when the Yankees were so angry that Betances filed for a high $ arbitration saying that he didn't have the saves, a stat that if that player was a FA the Yankees would have laughed in their face at. A player can't even hit FA now till 30 if they went to college and now teams would rather stash a guy like Guerrero or Bryant another year in the minors to play the clock. Even if you're a savant player you're looking at 2-3 years in the minors, 7 years in the show before being eligible to get paid. That's a decade which means almost every player other than the demigods that make it at age 21,22 will be hitting FA at ~30+ meaning they wont' be getting anything in today's climate. I think the union at the conclusion of the CBA needs to fight for better rights in the minors, arbitration, or the way teams basically create "factories" in third world countries where they get dirt cheap labor where 1 out of 1000 players might have a career and the other 999 are thrown to the side. Population growth in Latin America is skyrocketing and teams are using the endless supply of players to stack their farm systems without paying these players what they would have to pay in this country to develop the same quantity. It's the exact same situation that happened with these corporations going to foreign countries for cheap labor driving down the cost. Only the top top players will get paid, the entire middle class is going to be wiped out.
  11. IheartLA

    Angels who are Gold Glove finalists

    the GG isn't as much of a hodgepodge as it used to be. Statistical analysis is now like 25% of the criteria and so much about analytics is now mainstream in the sport that most voters are voting more and more in line with the #'s. Simmons & Kinsler will probably win, the others no chance. Maldy could win I guess too.
  12. IheartLA

    Maybe Jon Schoop?

    Eppler likes OBP, Schoop's walk rate has been below 5% every year but 1 since 2014. His OBP potential is not good.
  13. I think Eppler needs to bring in a couple of starting pitchers like Happ, Ryu, or Morton. We won't be in the market for Keuchel, Corbin, or anyone costing more than say $12M/year. I think hitting wise we need a catcher, obviously Realmuto would be best but I would be ok with signing someone like Suzuki for ~$5M. Give Fletcher 2B and if he can't do it then call up Rengifo. The bullpen already has tons of competition with Cole, Noe, JC, Bedrosian, Alvarez, Buttrey, Robles, Anderson, Parker. I don't think you need to spend on the BP, you can find arms anywhere, we already have a decent foundation. I would realistically go into ST with double the amount of arms we think we need for the rotation after what happened this year. If you include Canning, Suarez in the minors, Meyer+Trop DL then ~12 total including or so that could potentially start. Skaggs, Shoe, Heaney, Barria, Pena + 2 FA
  14. The actual payroll numbers are coming directly out of Arte's pocket so yes they do matter. I applaud Arte, he's always spent money to contend, the dude really loves baseball and takes pride in his team. I don't expect an owner to spend more than what the team generates in revenue, that's kind of over the top and unfair. If he's willing to spend close to that amount I don't any fan can reasonably expect more from any owner.
  15. IheartLA

    Machado

    Machado will be in demand. Over the last 5 years he's #9 in WAR out of position players. He would have had a 9-10 WAR season if he had played 3B this year. The dude's defensive numbers were insane at 3B. If the 9th most productive player over the last half decade at age 26 isn't in demand then baseball is really broken. I honestly think Harper could be looking at a long winter, his defense was so bad this year he's basically JD Martinez, a slugging DH. JD led the league in slugging and only got $110M. Every team seems to be loaded with outfield prospects. I think Harper will get 8 years and around $240M at best from a team like the Phillies/Braves. I think Machado could get $300M maybe, but Harper no way.