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About jessecrall

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  1. jessecrall

    David Fletcher

    Small sample size alert, natch, but Fletcher's chase rate this year has dropped from 28% to 21% and his contact rate's gone from 91% to 96%. And based on his plate discipline and contact quality, he's been UNLUCKY this year so...I don't think it's crazy for him to end up with an average OPS+ along with his plus defense.
  2. jessecrall

    Shohei Ohtani wants to play

    If Ohtani's healthy and hitting anything close to what he did last year, he's starting every day. You can take Bour & Pujols' attitudes about playing time into account when there's a 10 point difference in OPS+ or there are distinct platoon advantages or disadvantages. But when you have someone coming off a season where he was 50% better than the average hitter AND he can run AND he improved significantly against lefties as the season went on AND he puts asses in seats, there's just no way he's sitting unless you want to give him rest for physical preservation.
  3. jessecrall

    My main issue with the WAR stat...(Trout)

    Bill James ran a simulation in his revised Historical Abstract in which he took peak Babe Ruth and put him in a lineup with 8 deadbeats and had a season where he was pitched to and a season in which he was intentionally walked every single time. The team where Ruth was walked every single time scored more runs. It's just rarely a good percentage play to intentionally walk someone even if Trout's hitting ahead of someone who's scuffling. He'll STILL draw intentional walks anyways but managers aren't operating on the same default that they were 15-20 years ago.
  4. jessecrall

    My main issue with the WAR stat...(Trout)

    If three men don't reach base ahead of Trout, it's a solo shot. And if Skaggs gets bombed out of the game early and the bullpen doesn't step up, 5 runs might not do it. Trout deserves about $430 million worth of credit for what he does but I think his WAR is generally accurate.
  5. I'm with you on this, mainly because I want a diverse game; not just in terms of where players are from but HOW they play. Watching an endless parade of relievers throwing 98 to .240 power hitters is limiting the game. Baseball has already made adjustments to deal with imbalances via lowered mounds, altered strike zones, humidors, QuestTec...none of this is some grand violation of a pristine pastime.
  6. Seeing Kate Bush live Watching GOODFELLAS for the first time Having Megan Ellison back a dump truck full of money to my door so I can direct an over-budgeted adaptation of Richard Yates' THE EASTER PARADE with Saoirse Ronan
  7. He stays within his game, doesn't try to do too much, that's what gets him into trouble, just trying to go out there, do the interview right and uh, yeah. *Alex Curry beams*
  8. I think he has great interview skills precisely because he regurgitates the same lines over and over again.
  9. Considering a scout last year was quoted as saying Ohtani had a high school bat, I wouldn't bet against him defying expectations once again.
  10. I agree with Ohtani's comment; in the end, he made it abundantly clear that he could adjust to lefties and belonged in the lineup everyday. That's pretty important considering he knew he was only going to have value as a hitter in 2019.
  11. jessecrall

    Fangraphs top "100" prospects for 2019

    I wouldn't worry much over rankings; the tools for Canning are consistent across all the respected publications so it really comes down to people weighing judgments over ceilings vs floors or talent vs durability. The Fangraphs guys are good and they say Canning's FV tools are all 50 and up; that's not out of synch with anyone else.
  12. jessecrall

    Angels ZiPS projections

    The point of ZIPS is to project how people would do with regular playing time as opposed to projecting roster decisions and coming up with essentially useless predictions like "What would Rengifo do if he got 47 plate appearances at the tail end of the season?" Obviously, Brennon Lund isn't going to play 106 games unless multiple team planes crash but it's more helpful and interesting to see what he'd do if given the chance.
  13. Keith Law in his chat today: -He sees Rengifo as a plausible long-term solution at 2B -He loves Jahmai Jones, thinks he's already an adequate 2B but needs to produce -Jordyn Adams hasn't played enough to break his top-100, could be a superstar, could make the biggest jump in his 2020 rankings
  14. jessecrall

    Upton on MLB Radio re: Ohtani

    I've been an Angels fan for 20 years. Ohtani's 2nd start against Oakland is the most dominant performance I've ever seen from a Halo. If he can give you 20 starts a year without screwing up his swing, you run with it. Plus, the Angels have talented outfield prospects coming out of their ears.
  15. jessecrall

    Jim Callis: Is Vlad Jr. the best prospect ever?

    It's probably Griffey, maybe A-Rod...Trout was a better prospect than Vlad Jr, I think. It's hard to guess because in retrospect, you end up gravitating toward guys who had huge careers.