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totdprods last won the day on July 23

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About totdprods

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  1. I think that’s everyone’s preferred outcome - no prospects spent, only money - but that also locks in payroll a little more than Eppler would like I’d think. Trading for an arm as the second (or even third) rotation addition makes a ton of sense due to the benefit of keeping salary low enough for other FA moves. Not saying it’s wrong, but there’s a lot of benefit in the flexibility a trade would offer as well. It comes down to cost in trades and free agency. I’m not terribly excited about having to possibly have a $15m+ Odorizzi three or four years from now if we’ve got Soriano, Yan, Bradish, Pina, Holmes, Aquino, Kochanowicz, etc. beating down the door for a rotation slot, especially if we’ve kept Canning, Barria, Suarez, and Sandoval since we didn’t pull any trades.
  2. totdprods

    Three Lineup Questions (and Answers) for 2020

    There’s no way they’re gonna part with someone like Kelly - a catcher that good and young is worth a fortune. And I doubt you get Ray, even with his last year of control, for that package. There’s a reason these guys didn’t get dealt in July - the price is extremely high, and I’d imagine even as a rental he’ll cost you at least something closer to Suarez and Marsh - the second prospect would have to be a good step up from Ward, Walsh, or Rojas at least, I’d think. His price will be down a bit being offseason and less control, but it’s also a lot easier for other teams to make competitive offers without being in-season too.
  3. totdprods

    Three Lineup Questions (and Answers) for 2020

    Well, I don’t see many #3-4s striking out 12 per 9. And even with his struggles, he still has a WHIP of 1.16 - that’s pretty damn good, and much, much more in line with a #2-3, even an ace. And it’s a lot easier to allow 30 HR to bad luck than it is to strike out 200 with good luck. His track record doesn’t back it up, but he’s had promise in the past and is young enough to he stepping into a new level for his prime. I didn’t buy it at first, but look through some of his starts and he’s been a force. I’d bank on him being much closer to a #2 than a #4 over the next few seasons. And all the names you mentioned can step in and fill Marsh’s role. I’ll also add that I have zero interest in this move unless it’s secondary to adding Gerrit Cole - maybe a Ryu, Hamels, Bumgarner, or Wheeler, or in addition to an Odorizzi/relieves and a solid bat add like Grandal or Donaldson. If Boyd was marquee deal of the offseason, no way I make that trade.
  4. No he doesn’t - La Stella was hitting .300/.350/.500/.850 in a breakout season and fits Eppler’s dream offensive skill-set to a T. Rengifo arguably wouldn’t have even left SLC if Simmons, Cozart, and La Stella all didn’t wind up missing big chunks of time. I really like Rengifo but I can’t say this enough - having great depth is a great thing to have and is a hallmark of recent championship teams. If the Angels start 2020 with a Rengifo, Thaiss, Adell, and two of Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, even Canning in SLC, it’s a very good problem to have. A reminder, Wilfredo Tovar got 31 G/90 PA in this season. Bour got 160. Puello, Parker, and Bourjos combined for 115. I do agree that Thaiss, or Rengifo, are both strong trade candidates.
  5. To be fair, Erstad was also a GG at 1B so having primo defense at first wouldn’t be bad. And it’d be short-term. I don’t think we see either at 1B though, at least on any sort of routine basis. Personally I think Upton would be a disaster at 1B. He doesn’t seem to have the reaction or quick hands you’d hope for and a few too many mental gaffes. 1B is so much more involved than LF.
  6. Madero was awful for a while but has strung up a couple decent starts now. Ortega has been awful in AA too. Hope he turns it around, though, if he sucks the rest of the year may make it easier for him to get bypassed in the Rule 5, allowing the Angels to keep a spot free on the 40.
  7. totdprods

    Three Lineup Questions (and Answers) for 2020

    I’ll concede that if you wait a year, Marsh might develop enough that he does get you a frontline arm as a headliner, but I also think if we wait a year, his value to the Angels also shoots up considerably as Upton will be a year further into his contract and we’ll have a clearly idea, for better or worse, of what Adell, Goodwin, Lund, Hermosillo, and perhaps Jones and Walsh May offer. I guess I have a lot of confidence in Adams, Knowles, Deveaux, and our internal stopgap OF depth - including guys like Fletcher or Rengifo who could cover LF for a season if the IF filled up with Rengifo/Fletcher, La Stella, Thaiss. Adams could end 2020 in AA just as close to ready as Marsh or Adell are now if he has a big year, and could provide a really similar immediate skill set. I just feel that, as of Aug 2019, if the Angels want to trade for a frontline arm this winter, they’ll have to gamble based on who they can trade. They’ll have to gamble on someone like Marsh for a gamble of a SP like Ray or Boyd, and have to hope that arm achieves their ceiling, just as the acquiring team will be hoping Marsh becomes a frequent All-Star, and not another say, Josh Reddick. Most likely, neither happens. The Angels get a solid 2-3 on the cheap for a few years, the acquiring team gets an above-average, but not elite, everyday outfielder.
  8. totdprods

    Three Lineup Questions (and Answers) for 2020

    Therein lies the problem - I don’t think anyone on the Angels farm short of Adell, Canning, or a really, really high-value quartet, maybe even quintet, of prospects gets you a front of the line arm in a trade. Demand is too high, that type of pitching is at an absolute premium, and we have fierce competition on the trade market from SDG, ATL, HOU, and NYY right out the gate. The only way the Angels can trade for a frontline arm this winter without sparing Adell or Griff is by using Marsh for an arm that has a strong chance at developing into a frontline arm. I don’t think Boyd is a dominant #1, but he’s at the age and showing enough promise in 2019 that he very well might rattle off 2-3 very good years in line with a really good #2-3 on a staff. We need that badly. If Cole actually signs here and Ohtani returns to form you have a tremendous trio atop the rotation for very low payroll; and you might not need Boyd to pitch like a #1 in that scenario. Jose Quintana cost Dylan Cease and Eloy. The years of control, floor, and ceiling for Boyd make him extremely valuable.
  9. totdprods

    Three Lineup Questions (and Answers) for 2020

    I’d welcome a Marsh for Boyd deal if Marsh made up about half the value. Boyd’s been stung since mid-June by HRs, but has still struck out about 100 over his last 70 innings while maintaining a decent hit and walk allowed rate. I’ll chalk up some poor performance to regression, trade rumors, and playing on a poor team. I don’t think he’s as dominant as he his first 13 starts were, nor as poor as his last 13. His control and salary are incredibly appealing when you consider how much flexibility he gives you to still spend future money in free agency, enough value that it outweighs a regression to a very good #3 type that gives you 180-200 innings of 3.50-4.00 ball. I realize that isn’t terribly different from Heaney, or all that impressive, but shoring up the rotation with an arm like that, signing Cole, getting Ohtani back, and a new year for Canning, Sandoval, Barria, and Suarez (though surely one is dealt) makes for a really good rotation really quickly, without touching the payroll aside from Gerrit.
  10. Another vintage Barria start...I don't think he's ever really had a single start where he's dominated, but I swear it seems like he's always dropping a line very close to a 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR. Barria was rocked for 17 ER in 5.1 IP in two games, a 28.69 ERA. In the rest of his appearances, 12 games, 56.2 IP, he's allowed 25 ER, a 3.97 ERA. His ERA might currently be 6.10 - but to me, it's pretty clear he isn't a 6 ERA pitcher, even though that is his current earned run average.
  11. totdprods

    Jhoulys Chacin

    Also, Domingo Acevedo, Luiz Gohara, and Brady Rogers have all been released in recent days... Any one of those would be an interesting add to the farm.
  12. I never thought Ketel Marte would be a 25-30 HR guy, yet here we are. He never hit more than 6 in the minors and it's not even September and he's hit 27, still only at the age of 25. Since he was recalled for a second, and currently permanent time, in mid-May, Rengifo has slashed .248/.337/.376/.713, which is pretty damn solid for a 22-year old rookie mid-infielder. About a 70 walk, 30 double, 5 triple, 12 HR pace over 162 games. Even if he doesn't take a huge step forward, a .265/.350/.400/.750 slash seems like a realistic outcome - if his defense can improve a bit and he can add even 10-15 steals, that's great for league minimum.
  13. It worked for awhile. .370/.339/.441/.780 his first two months, 44 games, 168 PA. 15 walks, 23 strikeouts, .279 BAbip...all was working. Then he went 1 for 32 in ten games, part of a larger 4 for 47 slump over more than two weeks. It tanked his solid line. Since then? He's been just fine - .313/.351/.418/.769 since June 19th, 24 games, 74 PA.
  14. Really goes how far we’ve come in four years. Not just four prospects...four prospects vs. other prospects.
  15. I also like Brennon Lund as a 4th OF, and he will need to be added this winter to the 40 to be protected from the Rule 5, though it seems every year there are numerous 4th OFs eligible but few are taken. Jones will need to be added as well, and he could arguably fill a 4th OF role, at least defensively, as well as Lund.