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totdprods last won the day on January 18

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About totdprods

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  • Birthday 07/10/1986

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    Austin, TX
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  1. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Ken Rosenthal‏Verified account @Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago For now, even with Kinsler agreement, #Padres still envision Urias as their second baseman, according to a source. Kinsler will play some at third base while also mentoring Urias and Tatis and providing leadership. Kinsler’s career experience at third: Two innings.
  2. totdprods

    Nats interested in Keuchel

    Keuchel doesn't do much for me, but as things drag on, his odds of being an Angel start increasing a bit, IMO. Just as we've seen location preference hurt the Angels in any alleged pursuit of Corbin, Eovaldi, and Morton, Keuchel has been tipped as being more of a West Coast, even LA, guy. And yes, Eppler hasn't signed a FA with pick compensation, but he also scored a freebie prospect in Maitan (or two, if you count Ohtani) last year - I don't think losing one pick would deter him too much if Keuchel winds up being the only upper-end FA that wind up having a realistic and palatable shot at.
  3. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    As much as I championed a theoretical trade like that, it sounds like Ray's asking price is going to be really high, and Greinke's drawing enough interest on his own that Arizona likely won't need to include a second player to facilitate a deal. There isn't much high-level FA SP left - Keuchel and Kikuchi are about the strongest arms left - so if they don't land with the Halos and the Angels still seek a frontline arm and don't want to give up much in prospects, Greinke may be the only option left - and even then, Arizona likely needs to eat some money. They've also mentioned waiting until the deadline. I think Eppler is trying - but from what I can tell, it just looks like a lot of the plans aren't matching up to allow the outcomes he's seeking.
  4. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Of the two, I think I’d actually prefer Grandal. Seems to me he’d have the greatest probability of being a productive player on both sides of the ball for the life of the contract than Ramos.
  5. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Both are pretty iffy. Not a lot of catchers maintain good, consistent offense after 30 in the last decade. Yadi, age 26-30: OPS+ of 100, 84, 124, 137, 129 Yadi, age 31-35: .OPS+ of 102, 80, 111, 96, 103 Posey, age 25-28: OPS+ of 171, 134, 143, 133 Posey, age 29-31: OPS + of 115, 127, 106 Russell Martin, 28-36: OPS+ of 95, 91, 100, 135, 112, 96, 95, 87 McCann, age 24-29: OPS+ of 135, 119, 124, 122, 87, 118 McCann, age 30-34: 94, 105, 99, 106, 79 As good as Grandal (will be 30) and Ramos (31) might be now, even the best offensive catchers tend to tail off pretty regularly around this age. Either for 2-3 years or more is pretty risky. It's not terribly unrealistic both drop to a below-average OPS+ as soon as 2019. 26-yr old Austin Hedges still seems like a great option if Eppler can pull it off. Much better chance at having a productive catcher finding his peak at that age.
  6. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    I’m gonna guess Ramos will either land around 2/$28m or more length, 3/$30m. I think Grandal will either sign for a large AAV for 2-3 years ($15m?) or take a lesser rate ($10m) and get something like 4 or even 5, perhaps with an AL club or with an eye of playing some 1B later in career.
  7. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    I think it’s also worth watching the trade market, and seeing which incumbent catcher gets displaced when Realmuto is dealt.
  8. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Kind of interesting that minutes after the Ramos news comes out, the Grandal tidbit hits the waves too, given how tight-lipped the Angels are. Wonder if Ramos is one of the offers Eppler already had put out, and with the way the Angels operate so silently, the Grandal bit might have been fed to nudge Ramos’ camp. Could also be neither are true. But the timing was curious.
  9. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    According to Crasnick, Wilson Ramos is the currently the Angels' "primary target'". Not crazy about Ramos but certainly an upgrade. All comes down to money and years. 2/$25m would be great.
  10. It’s way too early to really measure what a Dipoto is doing. He’s clearing a ton of payroll, but he hasn’t done much for the farm in my opinion, or to stock the big league team with young talent. He’s basically just creating a blank canvas - and there isn’t much clue to what he has to paint with. There isn’t a lot of farm for him to acquire guys with, not a lot of farm to rely on...building a team primarily through FA isn’t ideal. My guess is there’s a lot to come in today the next year for him.
  11. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Bad contract may be a bit of an exaggeration, but it certainly isn’t a good contract. He’ll be 32 next year and he’s been walking a peripheral tightrope for awhile. He might outperform it still, but it could all catch up quickly. I would’ve been happy with a 1/$10, or a 2/$18m, but 3/$30m is playing with fire, and Eppler doesn’t take those risks. There are a good dozen FA SPs available that will likely go for 1/$4m to $8m before all is said and done who have the same probability of posting a typical Lynn season. Rangers made sense - they need a horse who can eat some innings regardless of the quality as they rebuild. They overpaid a bit to secure it, but it was a need for them.
  12. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Morton didn't seem to have any interest in West Coast teams, so much like Corbin, I don't think they had a shot unless they dramatically overpaid, which Eppler flatly does not do. For those same reasons, Eovaldi and Lynn did not work either. $10m a year for Lynn for three years is just too much. It's been a slow offseason because we just don't match up very well with this free agent class, either due to dollars or location preference, and because the trade market is just too expensive for what we're willing to give up. I'll again throw my suspicions that Machado or Harper wind up on our radar simply because their markets are murky, we'll fail to have luck on any other FA targets, and in signing one of them, will be able to free up some prospect currency to help with pitching. And, for obvious reasons, we aren't in a rush to overpay for either of those two yet either. I still think we'll see at least one major addition this offseason.
  13. totdprods

    What about a Cozart for Gray deal?

    I feel perfectly comfortable expecting something like .260/.320/.430/.750 from Cozart - 25 doubles, 10-15 HR. That's not far from what he did in '15-'16 before his break-out. He pulled in 2 WAR those seasons too. Upton's only real problem last year was flukey awful luck with RISP and a drop in doubles.
  14. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Like who? Most of the SP trade market hasn't budged. I always figured if we signed a FA SP, it would be Keuchel, Kikuchi, or the lower bargain tiers, and if we landed an upper/mid SP, it would come from the trade market. Those doors are still open.
  15. totdprods

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Asking prices are too high and he isn’t budging on our best prospects. Not a bad call this early in the offseason.