Dochalo

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Everything posted by Dochalo

  1. Dochalo

    2018 Hot Stove League

    Also, watch out for double secret sleeper Jose Rojas who's a little long in the tooth for a prospect because he started his pro career at age 23, but had a .935 ops at AA last year and put up an .870 ops in the Venezuelan winter league this year.
  2. Dochalo

    2018 Hot Stove League

    As far as our org depth at 3b, I think we'll see that gap filled in the A/A+/AA levels this year with Maitan and Jackson.
  3. Dochalo

    2018 Hot Stove League

    I think I mentioned in another thread that Ward has actually made steady progress with the bat over his minor league career. He was a rookie ball stud as most college picks are from the first couple rounds. He had a poor 2016, good 2017 and took off in 2018. The tough thing about Ward is that he's a much different player than people expected and on top of that, he's got that war room hoopla BS attached to him. He's very athletic and is a much better contact guy than he's given credit for. He's got great plate discipline. It's actually the in game power that hasn't shown up as much. Yet he's got 20+hr raw power potential. He's also fast. Not blazing by any means but 15-20 sb. fast. And he's obviously athletic. We cut Jam Jones a ton of slack because he transitioned from OF to 2b this year and his bat clearly suffered. Maybe because of that and maybe not. Taylor Ward suddenly because a 3bman after never seeing time there in a game and ended the season with a .977 ops in AA/AAA with 12 total errors at his new position. And in a short span in the majors showed major league avg defense. That's a pretty damn impressive learning curve.
  4. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/gabe-kapler-named-wild-report-203951570.html One of the teams most prominently mentioned in FBI files obtained by Sports Illustrated are the Dodgers, who Gabe Kapler served as director of player development since 2014 before being named manager of the Phillies last October. Whoa!
  5. Dochalo

    2018 Hot Stove League

    I don't think we'd have signed Allen if we were the Machado mystery team. Still think there's an outside chance it's the halos which would bum me out. I have always thought the Mariners would be in on one of Harper or Machado but apparently Jerry doesn't like latin players. Also, don't think it would be a mystery if they were in on him. That said, it actually makes some sense for them. Jerry D has been awfully quiet the last few weeks. He could sign Machado and put JP Crawford on the move for some pitching. I am sure he's blasting texts trying to get rid of Seager and Gordon.
  6. gonna watch Angels - Nats. Nolasco is on the bump. I bet he gets the win. I think Calhoun and Valbuena are gonna go yard and Bedrosian is gonna get the save.
  7. unlike discrimination in Mariner land, I don't think this one is going away.
  8. Dochalo

    How Much Would You Offer Simmons?

    I though 5/100-125 but Fletch thought that was too much. If we got him for less than Upton, I'd be stoked, but I think it will be similar even though Simmons will be a year older at the time of the extension.
  9. ok. so? Wade Miley has a 1.23 era in the post season. is he an ace?
  10. Dochalo

    Harper vs What we actually did

    I agree completely and I like the 'staging year' moniker. I really think Cole is gonna be a huge target for us. I also think we'll make a pretty big trade next off season.
  11. Dochalo

    The Eppler way?

    It's gonna boil down to risk. In the past, teams would assume a lot more risk on players later in their careers and they've just stopped doing that. Mostly because of the aging curve normalizing and also because there are a lot more productive younger players in the game or at least teams have noticed that league min talent is nearly as productive as a lot of the guys last few years of a big contract. But even with guaranteed contracts, the risk balance has shifted to a ton more being on the player. Yet shortening the time to free agency just increases the supply of players and may even have the opposite effect intended. If the MLBPA were smart, they would find a way to shift some of the risk they're now absorbing on the back end to the front end meaning that they're gonna have to figure out a way for the players to get paid more earlier in their careers. I don't know enough about all that to figure it out but I would think that starting the arb process earlier would help. The also absolutely need to create a payroll floor based on total team revenue that includes sharing.
  12. Dochalo

    Harper vs What we actually did

    I think we'll trade prospects for an elite player somewhere at some point soon. I am guessing it will be for a front line starter. The impact of a 6 WAR pitcher to replace your back end starter seems to give a lot more bang for buck than say paying a similar outlay for a 1bman that'll give you 3-4 WAR when you can get a 2 WAR guy for almost nothing. I think we saw that mentality for the C position this year. Teams going with good enough instead of meeting the Marlins ridiculous asking price for Realmuto. They didn't even hesitate. Everyone went elsewhere early and often.
  13. Dochalo

    Harper vs What we actually did

    really? I must have missed that. inside info? who were they gonna put in RF? were they doing a salary dump or did the actually expect something in return? and that begs the question of why. were they trying to clear salary for a bigger FA play?
  14. Severino is way more of an ace than Madbum at this point. I would even consider Paxton at or even slightly above.
  15. Dochalo

    Sonny Gray about to be traded

    or the Cards. the pirates could actually still be better than them. they're gonna lay out 5 prospects for a year of puig, kemp, wood, roark and gray. when another team does something like that it reminds me of how that could be the alternative for the halos. it would essentially be like giving up Suarez, Chris Rodriguez, Regifo, Maitain, and Thaiss.
  16. article was from the end of may and shortly thereafter he went on to perform solidly in the thin air of SLC. he misses a lot of bats but also gives up a lot of hits. probably because his fastball just isn't stout enough to elevate him to the next level. Some would attribute that to his short and stocky frame. He'll probably have some #3 type seasons in his career but for a few years he'll likely be a back of the rotation guy
  17. Dochalo

    Harper vs What we actually did

    They've got no one to replace him so they probably didn't look to move him. A team with a low payroll would take him with an eye for moving him at the deadline if he were to bounce back. It would probably require including some money or a prospect though.
  18. Dochalo

    Better or Worse

    they played over their head last year and have Profar in place of Lowrie. Lowrie had a 5 WAR season last year. Journeymen guys like Canha, Pinder had productive seasons for them. Losing Lucroy is a big deal for that pitching staff. He was a big part of holding them together last year. their rotation is a hodge podge. Edwin Jackson and Cahill were very good for them last year and they're gone. Manaea, Gossett, and Triggs are all either out or coming off surgery. and there's no way in hell Treinen has a sub 1.00 era again. They did add Soria who is likely to help. And Rodney who likely won't. If they win 85 games, I'll be surprised. I also feel like they are one of those 'momentum' teams where they'll do well if things are going good but they don't have the talent to sustain a bad stretch. If they start off slow, they'll be done early.
  19. Dochalo

    Better or Worse

    the braves lost Markakis and even if they bring him back, he had one of his best seasons at age 34. They lost Kurt Suzuki who had a really good year and for McCann and Camargo has an excellent year at 3b so it's likely that Donaldson gets them even. I guess moving Camargo to SS could improve them. They got a 2.83 era from Anibal Sanchez in 24 starts and a 2.87 from Gausman in 10 starts. They haven't replaced that with anyone. If they grab Markakis, Gio and Kimbrel, they're improved. Right now, they're worse than they were. Honestly, I think they win 80-84 games this year.
  20. my guess would be that Andujar would go to the Rockies in the deal. Or maybe Torres. If I were Col, of course I would want Torres.
  21. Dochalo

    Better or Worse

    I agree with your list. I also think Minnesota has gotten better. Arizona is worse The cards are better. The Phills are better. The Reds are better (although stupidly in my opinion. especially if they give up two of their top 10 for Gray).
  22. Dochalo

    Harper vs What we actually did

    I think from a practical standpoint you'd probably shave some dough off the first year or two of a Harper deal and give yourself a little bit of room to work with. Also, if you're going to sign Harper, then you'd have to have a taker for Calhoun. Even as a salary dump so you're likely shaving another 10m. If Harper take 25m in the first year and you move Kole, you're at +15. So it gives you about another 20m to work with for this year. Some would say that adding Harper make Adell expendable. But instead, when Adell is ready, I think I'd get Bryce that first base glove Boras was talking about. He's a trash defender and being at 1b could neutralize that. Another thing to randomly point out for Harper is that he has a sub .800 ops vs. lefties for his career. Just thought I'd mention that. So overall, in my mind, Harper becomes your 1b of the future. Hence the other contingency of signing him would be some sort of indication from Albert that he's done after 2019. But I digress. Back to 2019. So you're plus 15m so far. I think you still add Lucroy at 3.35m because you can't go into season with that catching tandem. +18.35 I definitely would still add one of Harvey or Cahill. Probably Cahill as he seems a little safer at this point. +27.35 So then the choice is between Harvey (or someone else) and Allen. I think I'd choose Harvey. +38.35. Maybe they wouldn't add that much so instead of Harvey you could go with some other starter that will get paid less like a Brett Anderson or Derek Holland I think you can still make the La Stella move and maybe even Bour as well. If not, I think it increases the chances of going with Ward at 3b to start the season, Cozart at 2b and Fletcher as the util. I don't think I'd keep Cowart. At the end of the day, I think you end up with a 1bman who's a really good hitter but making 35m+ per season for the foreseeable future. Big 1bman contracts are typically a recipe for disaster. And good luck on having any financial resources to supplement the team from 2021-23 if you intend on also keeping Trout and Simmons. You just couldn't make the commitment to harper without expanding payroll for his first few years. Personally, I think that's jumping the gun as it's hard for me to imagine a competent starting staff even with that.
  23. We'll be in one of three spots: 1. Worst case scenario is the team will be sucking and all the 1yr deal players will be as well. The good news is that all those guys will be done after the season and we'll have a bunch of money to spend the following year. Plus, Ohtani will be close to being back on the mound. 2. Best case is that we're in it and vying for a playoff berth. Perhaps even buyers. 3. Consolation prize is that we're out of it yet some of the 1yr deals are performing well. Not only does that help the team long term, but it's interesting. Lucroy, Harvey, Cahill, Allen, Calhoun. Maybe we could even find a taker for Cozart or Cam. Then we get to see more or get a first look at Adell, Rengifo, Canning, Suarez, Thaiss, Ward, Fletcher and maybe Jones, Walsh, Sandoval, Smith, and a few others.
  24. Dochalo

    The Eppler way?

    his road splits scare the crap out of me.