Adam

Thoroughbred Racing

2,842 posts in this topic

Adam, will you throw your handicapping up here for the 21st?

 

Wife and I are heading to Vegas for one of the kids soccer tournaments and the game times are like 9a and 8p, that's a full day in the race book.   I'd love to see what you'd think about the card on Saturday.

 

Of course! 

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Adam, will you throw your handicapping up here for the 21st?

 

Wife and I are heading to Vegas for one of the kids soccer tournaments and the game times are like 9a and 8p, that's a full day in the race book.   I'd love to see what you'd think about the card on Saturday.

 

Man, 9 am and 8 pm.  That's a lot of time your wife will have to spend babysitting the kids.   :P

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you still going?  I'm on the fence on going.  

 

Looked through the saturday card.  There are some interesting possible longshots.  Will know more once the odds come out if any of my picks are numbers.

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This is what I've come up with so far.

 

Race 1

4 Thesheetsguy - although a suspicous drop in class

 

6 Big Kick Brisnet Prime Power 3.3 if you don't like the 4

 

to complete a tri/super

5 Carlot Cowbow

2 Gladding (brisnet speed figure) 

 

Race 2

7 Nextdoorneighbor PP 3.7

 

Long Shot 1 Memphis

 

tri/super

2 Sacred Ovation

6 Congregationist 

 

Race 3

3 So Elite (speed)

9 Justification

 

Race 4 Wide Open Race

2 Daddy DT (speed)

7 Soul Driver

1 Bench Warrant

3 Jazzy Josh (Bejarano gets on this one)

 

Race 5 Maiden (or all)

7 Explicable 

 

RAce 6 Maiden

8 Vow me over

13 Miz Penelope

 

race 7 

6 Pica (jockey gets off)

1 Rovenna (Victor gets back on)

 

exacta/tri

2 Courageous Call (speed)

 

Race 8

8 Finnegans Wake (PP 11.5)

9 Ashleyluvssugar

 

5 Buymeabond (Long shot)

 

Tri/super

4 Power Foot

6 Joes Blazing Aaron

 

Race 9

14 Captain Carchy

 

Exacta

13 Sterling Wager

9 Captain G

12 Bandido Too

 

Tri/super

8 Julias Summer

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Pick 5  $4

4 Thesheetsguy

with

7 Nextdoorneighbor

with

3 so elite/9 Justification

with

2 Daddy DT/7 Soul Driver/1 Bench Warrant/3 Jazzy Josh

with

7 explicable

 

Late pick 4 $2

8 Vow me over/13 Miz Penelope

with

6 pica/1 Rovenna

with 

8 Finnegans Wake

with

14 Captain Carchy

 

Deep stack pick 5 $16 or $32 adding 6 big kick in the first race

4 Thesheetsguy 

with 

1 Memphis/7 Nextdoorneighbor/2 Sacred Ovation/6 Congretionist 

with 

3 so elite/9 Justification 

with 

2 Daddy DT/7 Soul Driver/1 Bench Warrant/3 Jazzy Josh 

with 

7 explicable

 

Deep stack late pick 4 $24

8 Vow me over/13 Miz Penelope 

with 

6 pica/1 Rovenna 

with 

8 Finnegans Wake

9 Ashleyluvssugar

5 Buymeabond

with 

14 Captain Carchy

13 Sterling Wager
9 captainG
12 Bandido Too

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I'm 3 races in. All I can say is that I hope Memphis is a longshot in the 2nd. I've gor him at 5-1. Iggy doesn't get a lot of love at the windows.

 

Iggy is my long shot money guy.  I'm hoping the odds are big on him.  

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Race 1

 

3 North Pacific has been a sprinter for the past year or so. Was claimed in his last. Is moving up in class and posts a lot of recent stamina-building works. The 1:13+ work on 3/13 looks really good. Must include for me on any multi-race wagers and I'll be playing this one to win if I can get 8-1 or better.

 

4 Thesheetsguy looks tough in this spot, winning 3 of his last 4 races around two turns. Curious drop in class, especially for a relatively lightly raced horse. The  form and speed figures suggest he should be moving up in class, not down. Bejarano stays on. Suspicious entry.  Can't toss but can't support.

 

5 Carlot Cowboy fits perfectly at this level. Consistent speed figs and decent form. Should get a perfect trip. 

 

I hope 6 Big kick burns money with his back class. Looks like he needs the lead to win and 1 Mad Hungarian w/blinkers back on won't let him do that.

 

Race 2

 

1 Memphis has great recent form and has shown flexibility. I like the set up here. He routed on 2/16 after a series of sprints then sprinted in his last. 7F looks like the perfect distance and he has won at this distance before, which is a key angle for me in 7F races. The jock is winning at 6% and we should get a decent price. I've pegged him at 5-1, but I could see this one at 10-1 or better.  Should save ground and have every chance down the stretch.

 

4 Senor Rain won his last at this distance and the trainer does well off victories. I think the public might sleep on this one a bit too. He should sit a good trip and pick up the pieces if the pace falls apart.

 

7 Nextdoorneighbor should go off as the favorite at post time after a couple 90+ beyers. He couldn't pass 2 Sacred Ovation, who struggles to finish races, in their last encounter. He beat him two races back when Sacred Ovation was alone on the lead going too fast. I think the pace will be a little hotter here with more horses close to contend with.

 

Race 3

 

3 So Elite has a clear pace edge if he wants it. He can go to the lead and wire the field if he's inclined, though his PPs show a variety of racing tactics. He's a consistent performer in the speed fig department.

 

8 Relentless Heat is screaming to get out of the sprint ranks and route. He gets that chance here against a bit easier company than what he's seen in his last few starts.  Trainer posts good sprint/route numbers.

 

6 Timeless Indy and 9 Justification are both sprinters stretching out and dropping in class. Both have a lot of back class.

 

This field is terrible.

 

Race 4

 

1 Bench Warrant looks like a big contender here after a couple wins down the hill. The pace should set up for a closer with a lot of stalker types running on the front end.  Baze chooses this one over the 7!

 

2 Daddy DT has put up 3 solid races in a row starting with the BC Juvenile Turf . No reason he shouldn't run a big one here as well.

 

7 Soul Driver returns to the turf after  the El Camino Derby. Should be coming late.

 

Competitive field. Can make a case for almost everyone.

 

Race 5

 

4 Hard Night's Day goes from two turf routes to a dirt sprint. 1st with Hollendorfer who wins 33% 1st off. Surface switch is a question but she should like the shorter distance.

 

9 Exposure has a lot of good works, but not as fast as you'd expect from a Baffert first time starter. Curious as to what took so long to get this one to the races. Outside post might be tough. Price will be too low on this one.

 

11 Betterlethergo is interesting. $120K purchase for a small, yet high performing barn.  Trainer is 1 for 9 with first time starters but connected with a bomb. Solid works. Good jock. Could win on talent alone.

 

8 Explicable is another one who will be heavily bet.  Good form but beaten pretty handily in her first two races.

 

Race 6

 

This is the toughest race on the card IMO. Absolutely no standouts. I suppose 8 Vow Me Over will be the favorite at post, but what an awful favorite.

 

10 Journeyonthemove gets a premium turf jockey for debut for a trainer that does okay with firsters. With no clear standout in the race, I will take a shot with this one.

 

2 Ivana Beat Yabad has a shot in here with the Blinkers going on and already two trips down the hill. I've got her pegged as the second choice.

 

8 Vow Me Over is 4 for 6 hitting the board and is likely to run for 2nd or 3rd money again.

 

Race 7

 

4 Master the Blues gets a little bit of class relief for the 2nd after the layoff. Her best will absolutely win this race. 4 for 8 at the distance. 6 for 12 in 2014. Looks like the perfect spot for this one to get back on track against some questionable, albeit talented opponents.

 

2 Courageous Call won at this level and distance two races back at a good price. Came back and ran well at 6.5F in her last. Should appreciate the cutback and post position.

 

10 Walk With An Angel fits in nicely on trainer numbers. Hollendorfer good 1st for barn, turf to dirt and decent with route to sprint.

 

Don't like 9 Crushed Velvet, who should take a lot of action. Baffert excels off the layoff but this one's works are not what we typically see from horses returning for him. Slow by Baffert's standards. Will let her beat me.

 

Race 8

 

8 Finnegan's Wake looks like the chalk of the day. 3 for his last 3 - all Grade 2s. Ran decent in BC Turf. Should outclass this field at 4-5.

 

1 Raise Your Gaze is hopefully a longshot who can run home for second along the rail. Second race in North America. Second off the layoff. Positive Jock switch.

 

4 Power Foot should be running late and passing the tired speed horses, of which there are plenty.  

 

Race 9

 

7 Rodeado cuts back in distance after showing a little bit of tactical speed routing.  I think he's got the best chance to work out the best trip and save some for the stretch.

 

14 Captain Carchy should be the favorite and gets a little distance relief.

 

13 Sterling Wager might be able to get on the front and wire the field. He's another getting distance relief.

 

9 Captain G has run pretty evenly in his last two and fits in nicely with this group.

Edited by Adam

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Dang adam. we are both going in different directions on the horses.

Some surprises. I thought I was being clever with both Memphis and Bench Warrant. ML suggests otherwise though I'd bet both go off at higher than their ML odds.

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