Adam

Thoroughbred Racing

2,767 posts in this topic

In most of these races I'll have to wait for the tote. Especially for the contest. In the last for example I will bet the horse with the best odds.

Most of the races are very competitive

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Regarding Race 1 and why I like North Pacific.

 

He was claimed for 12.5K in January. Why? To try to understand we have to look what the connections do with him after. Most of the time, they claim him, re-enter at the same level hoping to cash a check and risk losing him. If you claim him for 12.5 and re-enter him for 12.5 and he wins, but is re-claimed, you get your 12.5 back plus purse - basically double up $. 

 

This group gave the horse time and immediately put him into a stamina-training program - 4F, then 5F, then 6F twice. He ran faster and faster in each work. 

 

Then, instead of entering him in a route for a similar tag, they bump him up in class. They don't want to lose this horse. He's definitely live.

 

Meanwhile, Thesheetsguy has been cruising and is eligible to race at a higher level, including allowance races. Why put him in for a tag? And why a lower one than last out? And, no workout since his last race? What's wrong with him? 

 

In fact, I may look past the 4 and to the 5 Carlot Cowboy, who could fire a big one 3rd off the layoff. 

 

This first race is a good one. 

Edited by Adam

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Not too worried about the lack of work for the sheets.  It's the drop that is perplexing.  Then again, he was claimed if I'm reading it right, for 25k.   He came in fifth in the race right after, then first last race in a 32k.  This is Oneil as the trainer and looks like his brother as the owner.  So figure winners share of 32k is what halfish?  So you have him in a lower class, at a purse of 32k.  If he wins, then you have 16k in past winnings, 25k claiming, and if he wins possibly 16k in winnings.  So double up in about a month and a half.  That's the only angle I can think that makes sense.  As for the work, not worried.  He's on a short race schedule, 3 weeks, and his previous races he didn't work in between and was on a shorter schedule.  

 

As for North Pacific.  Personally, I hate, absolutely hate the first race after a claim.  

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I had a good horse racing weekend. I put a total of $4.00 in play. Hit a double at Gulfstream and the ice-cold super in the FL Derby. Pocketed $70. Also, my ice-cold tri in the FL Derby was good enough to win a DRF contest. I won PPs for 60 race cards in 90 days so if anyone wants to play the ponies send me a PM. I'll shoot everyone the derby and preakness stuff for sure

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Nice Adam.  Derby is shaping up to look kind of exciting.  Did you watch the Irish horse in Dubai?  His owner said yes to the Derby, and he looked impressive.  

 

I'm hoping International Star keeps getting overlooked.  That horse just knows how to grind out a win.  

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I did see the Dubai races. 

 

This is such a better crop of Derby contenders than last year. You could make a case for a lot of these horses but I don't think I could bet one of the favorites. AP needs the lead (it appears - maybe they'll try different tactics in the Ark derby but doubtful). Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Materiality, Stanford (if he runs), Firing Line, Upstart - all of these horses want to be close. Pletcher is going to have 4-7 horses in the race. He's going to burn one of them to take AP out of the race. I don't see how they don't go too fast. I will be looking for a closer. I prefer Prospect Park still. Obviously he needs to get some more points on Saturday. I hope he runs 2nd again. 

 

I like International Star too and he's going to be 15-1...

 

Right now, this is how I see the odds:

 

Dortmund 4-1

American Pharoah 5-1

Materiality 7-1

Carpe Diem 7-1

Firing Line 8-1

Upstart 9-1

El Kabier 10-1

Mustajjh (sp?) 12-1

International Star 15-1

Prospect Park 17-1 

Dubai Sky 25-1 

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I have $5 on International Star at 22-1 in derby future 3.  I have a lot on Ocho ocho ocho, but doesn't look like he's going to make it.  

 

I did go a bit funny on pool 4 and put some exacta's down.  Mubtaahij AP $55 payout, Mubta Dortmund $75 payout.  

 

As it gets closer, may do funny bets like key international star and go all in second.  Especially if International star has huge odds.  Might do the same with the foreign horse also if he's at good odds.

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I think he can definitely hit the board there. It's Carpe Diem and everyone else. 

 

I'm kind of bummed Far From Over got hurt. I thought he had a legit chance in KY

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Santa Anita Derby looks to be a small field.

 

Dortmund should run away with it.  But if One lucky Dane can keep up and tire him out.  Cross the Line and Prospect Park might be coming late for the upset.

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