Adam

Thoroughbred Racing

2,860 posts in this topic

Yeah, both Prospect and Ocho are at 30 points.  So right on the 20 horse bubble.  Depending on how the races go next week, one 100 pointer and one 10 pointer, they have an outshot chance to get in.  

 

And Ocho was ridden horribly also.  Jockey had no clue on him and gunned him to the front.  Then he decided to keep the gas on him.  

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GB,  what a freaky performance by American Pharoah. And, what an odd prep season for the triple crown. Really looked like this was going to be a wide open year with a number of horses with a real shot. But, Dortmund and American Pharoah just keep getting so much better and aside from Carpe Diem and International Star the rest of the field looks pretty weak. Far Right and Firing Line might be the only other real contenders. 

 

I think I'm going to play a monster Exacta with Dortmund and AP. 

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just as an FYI Adam.  Since I follow this horse.  

 

But Ocho yesterday fired a 58.8 work at Santa Anita.  Kentucky will be his 3rd start off a layoff.  From what I hear, the first off a layoff, he got cut up and bumped a lot.  I'll probably have some straight money on him as a long shot, since he should be getting double digit odds.  

 

The thing I don't like about Dortmund and AP.  Both are speed of the speed.  Might be why Baffert doesn't have them run against each other.  Because they may burn themselves out.  This race might set up for a stalker/closer as an upset.  If he gets a dream stalking trip, watch out for Mubtaahij.  

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I don't think they're the speed of the speed and both have shown the ability to rate and pass horses on the turn. 

 

I will toss ALL speed horses aside from these two. You've got Ocho Ocho Ocho, Mr. Z, Firing Line, Materiality, Stanford, even Carpe Diem a bit.

 

I'm not sure how I will ultimately play it, but I think if forced to wager today, I'd play:

 

Dortmund, American Pharoah

with

Far Right, Tecendur, Bolo & International Star

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I also think one or more of the speeds is likely to try and go bodemeister on the front end as the only possible way to win the race.

 

Watch any derby from the past and just look at the amount of kickback the horses take. They're covered. That is why I don't think I could ever put a hefty win bet on any horse less than 15-1. How will AP do if he's shuffled 6 or 7 back? I think Dortmund is the better bet to handle that. He's such a tough dude. 

 

I think my win bet will be Far Right, especially if Smith gets on

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Brutal draw for Ocho Ocho, AP, and Upstart.  I'm liking were Mubtaahiij, Dortmund and International Star drew.

 

1Ocho Ocho OchoElvis TrujilloJames Cassidy50-1

2Carpe DiemJohn VelazquezTodd Pletcher8-1

3MaterialityJavier CastellanoTodd Pletcher12-1

4TencendurManny FrancoGeorge Weaver30-1

5Danzig MoonJulien LeparouxMark Casse30-1

6MubtaahijChristophe SoumillonMichael de Kock20-1

7El KabeirCalvin BorelJohn P. Terranova, II30-1

8DortmundMartin GarciaBob Baffert3-1

9BoloRafael BejaranoCarla Gaines30-1

10Firing LineGary StevensSimon Callaghan12-1

11StanfordFlorent GerouxTodd Pletcher30-1

12International StarMiguel MenaMichael Maker20-1

13ItsaknockoutLuis SaezTodd Pletcher30-1

14Keen IceKent DesormeauxDale Romans50-1

15FrostedJoel RosarioKiaran McLaughlin15-1

16War StoryJoe TalamoTom Amoss50-1

17Mr. ZRamon VazquezD. Wayne Lukas50-1

18American PharoahVictor EspinozaBob Baffert5-2

19UpstartJose OrtizRick Violette15-1

20Far RightMike SmithRon Moquett30-1

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I know how to bet and the different bets but don't follow the horses a lick.  I will be in Vegas this weekend, any suggestions on which horse or horses to bet?

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If you want to wrong picks.  I have a bunch for you.  

 

I made my picks for the entire churchill card, and while I won't bet every race, here is what I came up with.

 

Race 1

8 Irish you well 3/1

1a Hazzards of Love 7/2

 

Race 2

4 Tappit Wickes 6/1 LongShot

5 Defondo 9/2

 

Race 3

8 Reach for a kitten 3/1

2 Thatcher street 6/1

 

Race 4

3 Carve 7/2

6 Cat Burglar 4/1

4 Rocket Time 6/1

 

Race 5 

2 Gimme Da Lute 7/2

6 Competitive Edge 6/5

 

Race 6 Wide open race so just took a guess on this one

2 Wireless Future 15/1 LS

 

Race 7 Interesting race since I have all longshots.  

4 Clearly Confused 8/1 LS

5 You Bought Her 12/1 LS

7 Sweet Whiskey 6/1 LS

 

Race 8 

5 Coffee Clique 3/1

9 Strike Charmer 12/1 LS

8 Sandiva 7/2

 

Race 9

2 Bayern 1/1

4 Private Zone 2/1

6 Gentlemens Bet 10/1 LS

 

Race 10

5 Finnegans Wake 9/2

10 Chocolate Ride 12/1 LS

8 Stephanies Kitten 9/2

 

Race 12 Wide open race.  Guessing.

13 Unbridled Juan 3/1

 

Race 13

6 Benton Bourbon 5/2

11 Starbound 4/1

 

Now the big race.  How much I bet will be dependent on how much money I have left.  lol

 

Race 11

6 Mubtaahij 20/1

8 Dortmund 3/1

12 International Star 20/1

18 American Pharoah 5/2 (outside post might be too much for him to do)

10 Firing Line 12/1

15 Frosted 15/1

 

Exacta $1

18 American Pharoah/6 Mubtaahij, 8 Dortmund, 12 International Star, 10 Firing Line, 15 Frosted $5

 

Exacta box $1

6 Mubtaahij, 8 Dortmund, 12 International Star $6

 

Exacta box $1 - Rational for this.  Mubtaahij may end up being my win bet.  Since he will be a price, instead of doing a straight win, do an exacta, and it might pay huge.  For a big race like this, if you are betting longshots, this IMO is the way to go.  

6 Mubtaahij/All $19

 

Trifecta $0.50

18 American Pharoah/6 Mubtaahij, 8 Dortmund, 12 International Star/ 6, 8, 12, 10 Firing Line, 15 Frosted $6

6 Mubtaahij, 8 Dortmund, 12 International Star/ 6, 8, 12, 10 Firing Line, 15 Frosted/18 American Pharoah $6

6 Mubtaahij, 8 Dortmund, 12 International Star/ 6, 8, 12, 10 Firing Line, 15 Frosted/6, 8, 12, 10, 15 $18

 

Superfecta $1 ugggg

18 American Pharoah/6 Mubtaahij, 8 Dortmund/6,8/12 International Star, 10 Firing Line, 15 Frosted $6

6 Mubtaahij, 8 Dortmund/6,8/18 American Pharoah/12 International Star, 10 Firing Line, 15 Frosted $6

6 Mubtaahij, 8 Dortmund/6,8/12 International Star, 10 Firing Line, 15 Frosted/ 12, 10, 15 $12

 

So now you know how to bet if you want to lose tons of money.

 

 

 

 

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For the feature race.  This is how I hope it shapes up, which it probably won't.

 

Carpe Diem, Materiality, Dortmund, Firing Line, American Pharoah, Upstart and Maybe El Kabeir go for the lead.

 

Dortmund takes the lead, with AP and Upstart having to work quite a bit from the outside to get it, putting Dortmund stalking.  I think it's going to be a 22 and 45 first fractions, because Dortmund will do his usual 23/46 fractions and make the other horses race out in front of him.

 

Meanwhile Mubtaahij will sit right behind Dortmund and get the dream trip and make his move up the stretch.   

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