Chuckster70

The Official TROUTstanding Thread

460 posts in this topic

As I said in another thread, I'm hoping to see Trout get to 50 HR and 10 fWAR for the season. After today he's at 36 HR and 7.1 fWAR, meaning he needs to hit 14 HR and 2.9 fWAR in the remaining 51 games.

36 HR, 7.1 through 111 games = 162-game pace of 52.5 HR, 10.4 fWAR.

The needed 14 HR and 2.9 in 51 games remaining is a 162-game pace of 44 HR and 9.2 fWAR.

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Oh yeah, within the month of August he's going to enter the top 50 all time in position player fWAR. After today's game he's at 72.1, tied with Frank Thomas at #53. The current #50 is Luke Appling at 72.7, so he needs another 0.7 WAR to replace Appling in the top 50.

Here's another crazy stat: every player ahead of him on the all-time list has played at least 500 more games than Trout's 1169. Dan Brouthers is the lowest total with 1673 games played (79.5 fWAR), then Joe DiMaggio at 1736 (83.1 fWAR). If Trout continues his current pace he'll be over 100 fWAR with another 500 games played.

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11 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Trout will finish with 49 HR, 9.9 WAR, and a .299 batting average.

Believe me, I've thought of that. I don't care as much about the BA, but the HR and WAR would be annoying. 

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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Pretty sad that only one guy in almost 60 years has hit more than 41 HR.

I'm surprised to see that Tim Salmon never hit more than 35 HR in a season.

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Trout's at 7.7 fWAR with Bogaerts #2 in the AL at 5.2. That's not only a 2.5 gap, but a huge lead in percentile. I'll do some research into how it looks historically, but what is worth noting is that Trout has probably already clinched the AL WAR lead in mid-August as Bogaerts is unlikely to surpass 7.5ish WAR for the season. 

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I just discovered that Trout reached a rather rare benchmark this year: 70+ fWAR in an eight-year span. How many players have done that? Trout is the tenth. Here is the list of every player (twenty in all) with at least one eight-year span of 60+ fWAR. The number in parentheses is how many eight-year spans (including overlap) that player has surpassed 60 fWAR. I've ordered them by their best span.

89.7 Babe Ruth 1020-27 (13)

77.1 Ted Williams 1939-42, 46-49 (4)

76.9 Rogers Hornsby 1920-27 (9)

76.0 Honus Wagner 1902-09 (8)

75.6 Barry Bonds 1997-04 (14)

75.3 Willie Mays 1958-65 (10)

74.1 Lou Gehrig 1927-34 (7)

72.1 Mickey Mantle 1954-61 (6)

72.0 Ty Cobb 1910-07 (7)

71.9 Mike Trout 2012-19 (2)

67.8 Eddie Collins 1909-16 (3)

65.6 Alex Rodriguez 2000-07 (6)

65.3 Jimmie Foxx 1929-36 (5)

64.6 Albert Pujols 2003-10 (3)

64.5 Mike Schmidt 1974-81 (4)

64.0 Stan Musial 1946-53 (3)

63.9 Tris Speaker 1910-17 (4)

62.0 Joe Morgan 1970-77 (2)

61.9 Hank Aaron 1959-66 (6)

60.0 Wade Boggs 1982-89 (1)

 

You'll notice that I "cheated" for Williams, skipping over the years he missed due to WW2. I think that is only fair, considering. Joe DiMaggio is another all-time great who missed a few prime years to war, but even skipping he years he doesn't quite make the cut.

So twenty players, and Trout's best is tenth. By year's end he should pass Cobb, Mantle, and maybe Gehrig. It is also his second 60+ WAR span, 2011-18 makes the cut despite him only playing 40 games in 2011.

For those wanting to bag on Bonds for being up there, notice the number in parentheses: 14. Meaning, 14 different times he had an 8-year span of 60+ fWAR. His first was 1987-94, his last 2000-07; even if we ignore the "roid years" of 1999 on, his best was 69.5 in 1990-97. An amazing player.

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As I mentioned in the Trout Slump August Edition Thread, Trout's now up to 8.0 fWAR for the season, making it his seventh (of eight) seasons of 8+ fWAR. He was on pace in 2017 but only played 114 games and finished with 6.9 fWAR.

Consider this: More often than not, 8 fWAR is the best player in baseball. 6 WAR is a superstar, so 8 WAR is fully 133% of a superstar season.

How many position players have seven 8 WAR seasons? The list is short: Ruth  and Mays with 11 each; Bonds with 10; Hornsby, Gehrig ,Wagner, and Williams with 8 each; and Eddie Collins and Trout with 7 each.

Good company.

Here's something even more impressive: Barring catastrophe, Trout will finish with his sixth 9+ fWAR season. How many players have six 9+ fWAR seasons? The list is also really short: Ruth with 10, Bonds and Hornsby with 8 each; Mays with 7; Wagner, Williams, and A-Rod with 6 each.

Notice players that aren't on either list:  

So in summary, Trout just became the ninth player in major league history with at least seven 8+ fWAR seasons, and will soon become the eighth player with at least six 9+ fWAR seasons. 

If he reaches 10 fWAR, he'll be the eighth player with at least three 10+ fWAR seasons, but I'll leave that for when he gets closer.

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This is just getting ridiculous.

With 72.9 fWAR through his age 27 season, Trout is now +4.1 over 2nd place Ty Cobb.

For age 28 (next year), he's -5.7 below Cobb. In other words, even if his season ended today, he'd only need 5.8 WAR next year to have the lead through age 28.

Age 27: +4.1 (over Ty Cobb)

Age 28: -5.7 (behind Ty Cobb)

Age 29: -15.0 (behind Rogers Hornsby)

So he needs to average 7.5 WAR in 2020 and 2021 to have the highest WAR before age 30, and that isn't even counting the 2-3 more WAR he's going to accrue this year. After this year the average needed will be more like 6.5.

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