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Stradling

$30 Million Off Season, how do YOU spend it?

77 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I’ve thought about it a lot.  You’re incapable of participating in threads like this.  

This is me participating. No one thinks we can make the playoffs even if we add 30 mil in payroll. If the team isn’t making the playoffs next year. Why spend more money. There is no point. Save the money for the year after when we can try and make a playoff run. 

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21 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Kikuchi 6/50
Ramos 2/20
Descalso 1/4
Lynn 1/10

or 

Kikuch
Ramos
Murphy 2/18
Buchholz 1/6

what I think is most likely

Keuchel 4/80
Happ 2/20
Suzuki 1/4
 

Even last year when the Angels spent, Eppler showed zero interest in sacrificing a high draft pick. Keuchel is the perfect fit for this team. Extremely high ground ball rate will play well in front of Simmons and Fletcher or Cozart, getting away from Houston will suppress the cheap home runs, eats innings, nickname is Hollywood.

So I think we'll see just how averse Eppler is to signing someone with a QO this winter.

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On 11/8/2018 at 11:47 PM, jessecrall said:

Suzuki: 1 year/$5 million

Descalco: 1 year/$2 million

Kikuchi: 6 years/$42 million per MLB Trade Rumors estimate + $8 million as a posting fee 

Morton: 2/$32 million

Morton was flirting with retirement this year so I feel skeptical that he'll leave Houston. But he's got great stuff, doesn't cost a draft pick and is unlikely to require more than 2 or 3 years. Kikuchi's a gamble but if he's even an average pitcher for most of that contract, he's a bargain. The Boras representation makes me figure his AAV will be higher than what I've got estimated but what the hell, we're just guessing. Descalco's coming off his best offensive season and offers mediocre defense everywhere. That's better than we got from Marte or Valbuena and he's cheap. Suzuki's the fallback assuming Realmuto costs too much; I agree with Jeff Fletcher's assessment of the Angels' overall reluctance to bet big on over-30 catchers.

I want to give Fletcher every opportunity to earn a starting spot. He's never drawn great scouting reports and even after last season, he earns more skepticism than praise. But his defense was terrific at 2 positions, he held his own at the plate and he just looks like the kind of smart, instinctive player who's always a touch better than the sum of his parts. Maicer Izturis was like that. Marwin's a more exciting option than Descalco but he's probably going to cost 3/$30 at a minimum and it's entirely possible that he already peaked. Per Fangraphs, Fletcher put up more WAR than Gonzalez in 65 fewer games. I wouldn't bet on that happening again but...I also don't want to spend $10 million a year on the assumption that it wont.

Simmons SS

Trout CF

Ohtani DH

Upton LF

Pujols/Descalco 1B

Cozart 3B

Suzuki C

Calhoun RF

Fletcher 2B

Skaggs-Heaney-Morton-Kukuchi-Canning (at some point) with Barria, Shoemaker, Suarez, Pena & Tropeano in the mix. That's a solid team. Not great but solid. If Adell & Jones are ready to click in 2020 and Canning & Suarez prove themselves capable starters, you can make a real run in 2020 without embarrassing yourselves in the interim.

That offense would suck for long stretches of time but that sure would be a great starting rotation.

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On 11/8/2018 at 11:47 PM, jessecrall said:

Suzuki: 1 year/$5 million

Descalco: 1 year/$2 million

Kikuchi: 6 years/$42 million per MLB Trade Rumors estimate + $8 million as a posting fee 

Morton: 2/$32 million

Morton was flirting with retirement this year so I feel skeptical that he'll leave Houston. But he's got great stuff, doesn't cost a draft pick and is unlikely to require more than 2 or 3 years. Kikuchi's a gamble but if he's even an average pitcher for most of that contract, he's a bargain. The Boras representation makes me figure his AAV will be higher than what I've got estimated but what the hell, we're just guessing. Descalco's coming off his best offensive season and offers mediocre defense everywhere. That's better than we got from Marte or Valbuena and he's cheap. Suzuki's the fallback assuming Realmuto costs too much; I agree with Jeff Fletcher's assessment of the Angels' overall reluctance to bet big on over-30 catchers.

I want to give Fletcher every opportunity to earn a starting spot. He's never drawn great scouting reports and even after last season, he earns more skepticism than praise. But his defense was terrific at 2 positions, he held his own at the plate and he just looks like the kind of smart, instinctive player who's always a touch better than the sum of his parts. Maicer Izturis was like that. Marwin's a more exciting option than Descalco but he's probably going to cost 3/$30 at a minimum and it's entirely possible that he already peaked. Per Fangraphs, Fletcher put up more WAR than Gonzalez in 65 fewer games. I wouldn't bet on that happening again but...I also don't want to spend $10 million a year on the assumption that it wont.

Simmons SS

Trout CF

Ohtani DH

Upton LF

Pujols/Descalco 1B

Cozart 3B

Suzuki C

Calhoun RF

Fletcher 2B

Skaggs-Heaney-Morton-Kukuchi-Canning (at some point) with Barria, Shoemaker, Suarez, Pena & Tropeano in the mix. That's a solid team. Not great but solid. If Adell & Jones are ready to click in 2020 and Canning & Suarez prove themselves capable starters, you can make a real run in 2020 without embarrassing yourselves in the interim.

Morton has been quoted as saying that he will retire if he doesn’t sign with the Astros.

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4 hours ago, Kevinb said:

This is me participating. No one thinks we can make the playoffs even if we add 30 mil in payroll. If the team isn’t making the playoffs next year. Why spend more money. There is no point. Save the money for the year after when we can try and make a playoff run. 

I think we can make the playoffs if we spend $30 million.  

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1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I think we can make the playoffs if we spend $30 million.  

If we spent the 30 million on the right guys, and we stayed healthy, and guys like Skaggs and Cozart play up to their ability, and Oakland and Tampa Bay ate it, then yeah. 

I think either way, we'll probably need to win 90+ games. 

We'll need to get lucky.

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6 hours ago, Second Base said:

Even last year when the Angels spent, Eppler showed zero interest in sacrificing a high draft pick. Keuchel is the perfect fit for this team. Extremely high ground ball rate will play well in front of Simmons and Fletcher or Cozart, getting away from Houston will suppress the cheap home runs, eats innings, nickname is Hollywood.

So I think we'll see just how averse Eppler is to signing someone with a QO this winter.

that's a good point.  We'd lose our 2nd round pick if we signed Keuchel.  Which has amounted to us going with players demonstrating first round upside.  Our 2nd, 3rd and 4th best prospects are 2nd rounders (one of which taken by Dipoto) and Jeremiah Jackson is 14th who could make a huge charge into the top 5 in 2019.  

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

that's a good point.  We'd lose our 2nd round pick if we signed Keuchel.  Which has amounted to us going with players demonstrating first round upside.  Our 2nd, 3rd and 4th best prospects are 2nd rounders (one of which taken by Dipoto) and Jeremiah Jackson is 14th who could make a huge charge into the top 5 in 2019.  

Exactly. Round 2 is a Jahmai Jones, Brandon Marsh, Griffin Canning, Jeremiah Jackson.... Every single one of those is a top 10 prospect in our system because every single one of them was a first round talent that dropped into the second round for one reason or another. 

Losing Griffin Canning at this point would be awful for this team at their current stage. And a year from now, after Jones and Marsh both break out and are top 50 prospects, we'll better understand the cost of Dallas Keuchel. That's what signing free agents does to a team.

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1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Exactly. Round 2 is a Jahmai Jones, Brandon Marsh, Griffin Canning, Jeremiah Jackson.... Every single one of those is a top 10 prospect in our system because every single one of them was a first round talent that dropped into the second round for one reason or another. 

Losing Griffin Canning at this point would be awful for this team at their current stage. And a year from now, after Jones and Marsh both break out and are top 50 prospects, we'll better understand the cost of Dallas Keuchel. That's what signing free agents does to a team.

plus you lose the 2nd round pool money.  

I don't like Keuchel enough to pay him 20 mil per for 4 years at age 31-34 AND lose our 2nd round pick.  

my 4th of 15-20 revisions:

Kikuchi 5/50 pay him 7 in the first year. 
Donaldson 1+1.  first year 1/13, option of 1/17 with a 3m buyout.  
Derek Holland 1/6
Suzuki 1/4
Trade for Andrew Toles.  
Richards 2/9.  pay him 1m in 2019.  

 

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1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Hey @Jeff Fletcher since Arte looks at actual payroll spent per year, would he have looked at Ohtani’s posting fee as part of that?  If so would that possibly mean they’d spend closer to $50 million instead of $30?

Well that was last year. And I dont think they count they against what they consider their “payroll” to be. I think it was probably a one-time exception for Ohtani, rather than opening the door for an extra $20M this year. 

Arte has always said he’d go over the budget for the right player. They did with Ohtani. 

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3 hours ago, Stradling said:

Hey @Jeff Fletcher since Arte looks at actual payroll spent per year, would he have looked at Ohtani’s posting fee as part of that?  If so would that possibly mean they’d spend closer to $50 million instead of $30?

I wonder if they might be making up for last year's posting by 'only' going +30 this year.  

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3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

plus you lose the 2nd round pool money.  

I don't like Keuchel enough to pay him 20 mil per for 4 years at age 31-34 AND lose our 2nd round pick.  

my 4th of 15-20 revisions:

Kikuchi 5/50 pay him 7 in the first year. 
Donaldson 1+1.  first year 1/13, option of 1/17 with a 3m buyout.  
Derek Holland 1/6
Suzuki 1/4
Trade for Andrew Toles.  
Richards 2/9.  pay him 1m in 2019.  

 

My 4th of what I would do. 

Kikuchi - 5 years is right where I expect him to get, but there seems to be some disparity in the annual amount. I've seen as little as 6 million and a year and as much as 12. I figure somewhere in the middle at 9 million a year makes sense. So I figure 5/45. 21 million left. 

Lynn - 1 year 8 million with a team option for 12 million. 13 million remaining. 

Trade Calhoun, Brandon Marsh, Jose Suarez, Chris Rodriguez and Leo Rivas for Starling Marte. 13 million remaining.

Cut bait on Shoe and Ramirez, 19 million remaining. 

Sign Suzuki, one year, three million. 16 million remaining. 

Sign Donaldson for 1 year, 16 million with a second year option at 24, with a 4 million buyout. 

1. RF Marte 2. CF Trout 3. DH Ohtani 4. LF Upton 5. 3B Donaldson 6. SS Simmons 7. 2B Cozart 8. 1B Pujols 9. C Suzuki

Kikuchi, Skaggs, Heaney, Lynn, Barria, Canning.

 

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17 minutes ago, Second Base said:

My 4th of what I would do. 

Kikuchi - 5 years is right where I expect him to get, but there seems to be some disparity in the annual amount. I've seen as little as 6 million and a year and as much as 12. I figure somewhere in the middle at 9 million a year makes sense. So I figure 5/45. 21 million left. 

Lynn - 1 year 8 million with a team option for 12 million. 13 million remaining. 

Trade Calhoun, Brandon Marsh, Jose Suarez, Chris Rodriguez and Leo Rivas for Starling Marte. 13 million remaining.

Cut bait on Shoe and Ramirez, 19 million remaining. 

Sign Suzuki, one year, three million. 16 million remaining. 

Sign Donaldson for 1 year, 16 million with a second year option at 24, with a 4 million buyout. 

1. RF Marte 2. CF Trout 3. DH Ohtani 4. LF Upton 5. 3B Donaldson 6. SS Simmons 7. 2B Cozart 8. 1B Pujols 9. C Suzuki

Kikuchi, Skaggs, Heaney, Lynn, Barria, Canning.

 

Explain the Marte trade to me; his value lies in 2020 and 2021 team options at reasonable costs; since Adell can be reasonably projected to be ready by 2020, it seems like you're giving up a helluva lot for what could amount to 1 year of a 30-year-old coming off a good-not-great season.

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8 hours ago, jessecrall said:

Explain the Marte trade to me; his value lies in 2020 and 2021 team options at reasonable costs; since Adell can be reasonably projected to be ready by 2020, it seems like you're giving up a helluva lot for what could amount to 1 year of a 30-year-old coming off a good-not-great season.

Great defense, reasonable contract, outstanding lead off hitter, speed and power. I think most major leaguers great season are what Marte might consider only a "good" season last year.

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On ‎11‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 10:54 PM, Second Base said:

My 4th of what I would do. 

Kikuchi - 5 years is right where I expect him to get, but there seems to be some disparity in the annual amount. I've seen as little as 6 million and a year and as much as 12. I figure somewhere in the middle at 9 million a year makes sense. So I figure 5/45. 21 million left. 

Lynn - 1 year 8 million with a team option for 12 million. 13 million remaining. 

Trade Calhoun, Brandon Marsh, Jose Suarez, Chris Rodriguez and Leo Rivas for Starling Marte. 13 million remaining.

Cut bait on Shoe and Ramirez, 19 million remaining. 

Sign Suzuki, one year, three million. 16 million remaining. 

Sign Donaldson for 1 year, 16 million with a second year option at 24, with a 4 million buyout. 

1. RF Marte 2. CF Trout 3. DH Ohtani 4. LF Upton 5. 3B Donaldson 6. SS Simmons 7. 2B Cozart 8. 1B Pujols 9. C Suzuki

Kikuchi, Skaggs, Heaney, Lynn, Barria, Canning.

 

On the surface, Marte seems to be a solid leadoff guy with the SBs and decent enough BA and OPS.    But the OBP seems to be largely predicated on BA.  

Do you want to give up TWO top 10 prospects plus two others for a guy whose OBP could suddenly fall in the next season or so?    Granted he has a lot more sock than someone like Dee Gordon.   And he does have up to 3 seasons of control.

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My Revised $30 is:

Do the Trade I mentioned in the "Crazy Trade Idea" which is Calhoun & Tropeano & Prospect for Ellsbury & Gray & Cash = +2.5 M.

Sign Shoemaker to a 2M base with up to 4 in bonuses if he performs. = -2.5 M.

Cut JC Ramirez. -1.9M

Extend Trout, while dropping his salary for 2019 and 2020 by 6M each year, but adding 10 years to his deal. -6M.

Add Yasmani Grandal at Jon Heyman's contract number = 2/20 = 9 in 2019, 11 in 2020.= +9.

Add Andrew McCutchen at Jon Heyman's contract number 3/39 = 13M in each of 19, 20 and 21. = +13.

Add Nathan Eovaldi at Jon Heyman's contract number 3/45 = 12M in 2019, 15M in 2020, and 18M in 2021. = +12

Add Matt Adams at Jon Heyman's contract number = 1/4.5 = + 4.5M

= 30.6 M

 

Roster

Hitters:

OF Trout, Upton, McCutchen, Ellsbury

DH Ohtani

INF Pujols, Simmons, Adams, Cozart, Fletcher, Ward

C Grandal, Briceno

Pitchers:

SP Gray, Eovaldi, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria/Pena, Shoemaker

RP Buttrey, Parker, Alvarez, Bedrosian, Cole, Robles, Anderson, Pena

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Hubs said:

My Revised $30 is:

Do the Trade I mentioned in the "Crazy Trade Idea" which is Calhoun & Tropeano & Prospect for Ellsbury & Gray & Cash = +2.5 M.

Sign Shoemaker to a 2M base with up to 4 in bonuses if he performs. = -2.5 M.

Cut JC Ramirez. -1.9M

Extend Trout, while dropping his salary for 2019 and 2020 by 6M each year, but adding 10 years to his deal. -6M.

Add Yasmani Grandal at Jon Heyman's contract number = 2/20 = 9 in 2019, 11 in 2020.= +9.

Add Andrew McCutchen at Jon Heyman's contract number 3/39 = 13M in each of 19, 20 and 21. = +13.

Add Nathan Eovaldi at Jon Heyman's contract number 3/45 = 12M in 2019, 15M in 2020, and 18M in 2021. = +12

Add Matt Adams at Jon Heyman's contract number = 1/4.5 = + 4.5M

= 30.6 M

 

Roster

Hitters:

OF Trout, Upton, McCutchen, Ellsbury

DH Ohtani

INF Pujols, Simmons, Adams, Cozart, Fletcher, Ward

C Grandal, Briceno

Pitchers:

SP Gray, Eovaldi, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria/Pena, Shoemaker

RP Buttrey, Parker, Alvarez, Bedrosian, Cole, Robles, Anderson, Pena

 

 

 

 

Trade Parker for someone's lower level prospect in a deep farm, and have Ward start 2019 at SLC, and voila, 25 man roster with $3 million still to use.

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16 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Trade Parker for someone's lower level prospect in a deep farm, and have Ward start 2019 at SLC, and voila, 25 man roster with $3 million still to use.

I'd rather non-tender Bedrosian than lose Parker, but the pen's total cost will be under $10M, can't complain about that.

Rotation will be under $35.

 

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