Chuckster70

The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

2,652 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

The guy you had a hard on for in last year's draft is struggling in his first full season in the minors. 

.232/.328/.417 - Nolan Gorman. He's also played a bad third base defensively from reports as well. So yeah, calm down on Wilson it's early in his development and he played a full season of college ball. Players adjust to professional ball differently in their first taste in the minors. 

Gorman turned 19 two months ago and is in A+.  I'd have preferred him over Adams and thought it was a mistake at the time.  I'll own that as I still feel that way.  I hope I end up being completely wrong.  The Adams pick was still fun and I enjoy watching him.  I just thought we had a better choice at the time.  

I'm perfectly calm.  I know it's early and I even mentioned that specifically about Wilson.  Honestly, I don't even know who I'd have taken otherwise.  For whatever reason, the entire draft didn't get me overly excited this year.  Which means it probably ends up as one of our best.  

Keep in mind that I wasn't a fan of canning when we drafted him.  That's a better point of reference and gives you a better idea of how much I know about any of this.  All I can tell you is that Wilson doesn't get me super hyped from what I've seen.  But I'll give you a cool comp of who he kinda reminds me of from a swing and skill set standpoint.  How about Michael Young?  

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53 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Gorman turned 19 two months ago and is in A+.  I'd have preferred him over Adams and thought it was a mistake at the time.  I'll own that as I still feel that way.  I hope I end up being completely wrong.  The Adams pick was still fun and I enjoy watching him.  I just thought we had a better choice at the time.  

I'm perfectly calm.  I know it's early and I even mentioned that specifically about Wilson.  Honestly, I don't even know who I'd have taken otherwise.  For whatever reason, the entire draft didn't get me overly excited this year.  Which means it probably ends up as one of our best.  

Keep in mind that I wasn't a fan of canning when we drafted him.  That's a better point of reference and gives you a better idea of how much I know about any of this.  All I can tell you is that Wilson doesn't get me super hyped from what I've seen.  But I'll give you a cool comp of who he kinda reminds me of from a swing and skill set standpoint.  How about Michael Young?  

I'll take Michael Young numbers any day from Wilson. 

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I feel like part of the Wilson pick actually was made looking at the MLB team’s need two years ahead. By then, the young infield guys we have who will stick will have stuck, who will have bombed will be out of options, and some potentially traded, and Wilson gives them a fast-track Thaiss-like infielder bat to work into that depth.

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I absolutely would've taken Gorman over Adams. Nolan is 19, already in advanced A Ball, was a Future's Game participant and has the best raw power in all of minor league baseball. The learning curve for power hitters is always steep, but Gorman is making enough contact and logging walks to boot.

Gorman will be a major leaguer before he's 22, and earns comps with Joey Gallo, who is probably the second best hitter in the AL this year.

This isn't top say Adams is bad at all. Good speed, developing plate discipline and power to go with a sky high defensive ceiling. If we're lucky Adams will be in the majors by 23, but even then, who knows what role that would be in. But Adams isn't the hitter Gorman is, now or in the future it seems. This would be fine if the team were in dire need of CF help, but with so many hyper-athletic outfielders in the system, Adams really does not seem to separate himself from the likes of Adell, Marsh, Knowles, Deveaux or Ramirez.

When you have an outfield as full as the Angels is, you better be a superstar and nothing less, otherwise there won't be any playing time for you. But if we look at Gorman, the current 3B depth would be limited to himself and Maitan in the low minors and Thaiss and Fletcher at the MLB level. 

So yeah, I take Gorman over Adams 10 times out of 10.

Edited by Second Base

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This is the first Swanson and Eppler draft whe I'm really not enamored with the picks. But that's a very early assessment. Let's see what's they're at in three years. But my initial reaction.... 

After watching Will Wilson play so far, he feels a bit like Josh Rutledge, for those that remember him. Kind of a no-namer that makes it to the big leagues quickly, but just lacks the upside to stick or make any kind of an impact.

Kyren Paris is well spoken and is very open and honest about his current skill level. But it says something that the Angels haven't even had him make an appearance in the AZL yet. From the outset, he looks like someone that won't even make it to A Ball for two and a half years until after he's drafted.  Which means if that's the case, even in the mostoptimistic outlook, you're looking 6 years of minor league time for a second round pick. 

Kochanawicz....well we aren't even going to get a look at him until next year, but I suspect he's going to be better than expected. 

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I kind of feel this draft was just a continuation of last year’s plan, as well as a response to what the Burlington and Inland Empire pitching staffs were doing.

Just an overall effort to flood the org with a ton of cheap college arms to put into their development pipeline that’s trying to produce tandem SP/multi-inning RP/convert to rotation guys. Get to a point where you don’t have to spend much on pitching except the apex arms.

Then, draft and develop high-risk hitters with huge upside. Many will bust, but you’ll hit big on a couple, like Adell, pair with Ohtani and Trout, supplement in FA. The hope would be those prospects you hit on are so damn good that you don’t have to worry about producing average safe players, and you can roll the dice on those cheaply in waivers/trades/FA. Sometimes working (La Stella, Goodwin), sometimes not (Cozart).

Edited by totdprods

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4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Was the first two rounds of the draft more mediocre than normal in general?

Always keep in mind that there are hidden gems in every draft.  deGrom was a 9th round pick and made his debut at age 26.  Also keep in mind that most of the players after the first few rounds won't sniff mlb let along turn out to be everyday players.   

I still have hope for everyone that we signed from this draft.  I am more excited about certain players over other based on a prelim look or no look at all.  

But in the end, it's complete message board fodder BS and mostly for the purpose of discussion.  People who do this for a living and have access to hundreds of times more info than we do rarely get it right.  

Even as amazing as the 2009 draft was, we took 5 players before Nolan Arenado was drafted in the 2nd round.  

There are no conclusions to be made about this years draft.  Hell, there's still a ton up in the air from the 2013 draft.  Mike Hermosillo could become an all-star.  Probably not, but no one knows that.  Remember Austin Adams?  Drafted by the halos in the 8th round of 2012.  Has a 3.47 era in 23.1 ip with 41k before he went on the DL.  

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6 hours ago, Second Base said:

This is the first Swanson and Eppler draft whe I'm really not enamored with the picks. But that's a very early assessment. Let's see what's they're at in three years. But my initial reaction.... 

After watching Will Wilson play so far, he feels a bit like Josh Rutledge, for those that remember him. Kind of a no-namer that makes it to the big leagues quickly, but just lacks the upside to stick or make any kind of an impact.

Kyren Paris is well spoken and is very open and honest about his current skill level. But it says something that the Angels haven't even had him make an appearance in the AZL yet. From the outset, he looks like someone that won't even make it to A Ball for two and a half years until after he's drafted.  Which means if that's the case, even in the mostoptimistic outlook, you're looking 6 years of minor league time for a second round pick. 

Kochanawicz....well we aren't even going to get a look at him until next year, but I suspect he's going to be better than expected. 

I know you hate when I do this, but there is absolutely no way to know this after a month.  You are saying that this guy looks like a guy that won’t be in A ball until 2022.  So not this year, not next year, not the following year, but the year after that?  I call bullshit.  

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39 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Is every homerun he hits oppo taco

Looks like it. He mentioned in an interview earlier this week that the biggest difference between him last year and him this year is that he realizes how elite his bat speed is. So he can start his swing later and let the pitch deeper and still be successful. He no longer feels the need to cheat on his swings. It just shows that these numbers and the improvement he has seen from double-a  this season(.355/.423/.602) compared to last season (.238/.324/.429) are no coincidence. He is getting smarter and better every single day.

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1 hour ago, #WeNasty said:

I know you hate when I do this, but there is absolutely no way to know this after a month.  You are saying that this guy looks like a guy that won’t be in A ball until 2022.  So not this year, not next year, not the following year, but the year after that?  I call bullshit.  

I had a similar thought at first, although without the self-righteous vitriol ;). But then I thought that Scotty could be right, and if he's wrong he's only off by a year or less; he'll be in A ball in either 2021 or 2022. 

I'm not sure where Paris is right now, but either in extended camp or simply enjoying his summer vacation after graduating high school. Next year he goes to minor league spring camp. Presumably he'll do well enough to play in short season AZL (low Rookie), but probably not Orem (high Rookie). In 2021 he'll either go back to extended camp and then on to Orem, or he'll go right to A ball, or get promoted. But chances are his first full season (A/A+) will be 2022, when he's 20 years old.

Now if he presents as more advanced than expected next year, or develops quickly, he could have an accelerated path. But from what we know he's pretty raw, so won't be rushed.

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2 hours ago, #WeNasty said:

I know you hate when I do this, but there is absolutely no way to know this after a month.  You are saying that this guy looks like a guy that won’t be in A ball until 2022.  So not this year, not next year, not the following year, but the year after that?  I call bullshit.  

Kyren Paris is exceptionally young and exceptionally raw for this draft. The potential is what drove him into the first round discussion not his present abilities. 

If he's already signed, and the Angels have already deemed him needing further development before even taking part in Rookie Ball, then you have to know this is a long term investment, not someone that's going to pay dividends for a while.

Just as example, here is an anticipated timeline. 

Age 17: Drafted

Are 18: Arizona Rookie Ball

Age 19: Pioneer League Rookie Ball

Age 20: Burlington

Now the age curve is what you can typically expect from a prep player.  However, is quite a bit more delayed than you'd prefer to see from a high pick such as himself.  But two and a half years from his draft date to his full season debut is presenting itself as a real possibility at this point.

I think if you took the time to learn a little more about the prospects before call BS, you'd know that. 

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