Chuckster70

The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

2,631 posts in this topic

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

I saw him when he was a starter.  He was completely unremarkable, throwing 90-92.  Even after he moved to the pen, he still wasn't throwing hard at first, more than likely 93 or 94.  Then something clicked and he was dialing it up in the upper-90's.  Now he's dialing back down into the mid-90's which is where he'll probably stay at because he's having the most success there. 

Exactly. Org filler, at best. He came out of nowhere last ST. Was amazing to see.

Best person to say would be the next Justin Anderson would be someone like Alexander or Krzeminski.

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9 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Sometimes, AAA is less developmental and more of an extended major league roster.  Offensively, I'd agree, Ward isn't going to gain a ton from Salt Lake.  Defensively, he can definitely improve.  Basically, he's just getting everyday AB's and is in the holding zone, waiting for him MLB promotion.  But as a 1B/3B/LF/emergency catcher, his positional versatility will likely keep him in the majors.  His bat will ultimately dictate the role he'll have in the majors though. 

Made perfect sense last year to throw him into the fire at 3B. We were extremely thin top-to-bottom in the org at that position, it’s a logical place to play a catcher, and it’s a challenging enough position to keep you on your toes. Pushing him to learn more positions on top of that and growing as a hitter was unrealistic.

This year is completely different. La Stella, Rengifo, Fletcher, and Cozart are interchangeable at 3B. Rojas has emerged. Jones was in theory close to pushing for 2B. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ward is primarily a LF/1B, seeing less time at 3B, by end of the year, maybe even sooner. The defense is less critical and he can keep honing his offense, which seems to be emerging as his best skill for future value.

If his offense comes around, Ward might lock down 1B before the season is out and be our primary guy there 2020+.

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10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Made perfect sense last year to throw him into the fire at 3B. We were extremely thin top-to-bottom in the org at that position, it’s a logical place to play a catcher, and it’s a challenging enough position to keep you on your toes. Pushing him to learn more positions on top of that and growing as a hitter was unrealistic.

This year is completely different. La Stella, Rengifo, Fletcher, and Cozart are interchangeable at 3B. Rojas has emerged. Jones was in theory close to pushing for 2B. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ward is primarily a LF/1B, seeing less time at 3B, by end of the year, maybe even sooner. The defense is less critical and he can keep honing his offense, which seems to be emerging as his best skill for future value.

If his offense comes around, Ward might lock down 1B before the season is out and be our primary guy there 2020+.

Yeah.  Like you said before, I think it comes down to Thaiss or Ward.  One of them will stay and one of them will go and ultimately, it'll come down to offense.  Ward is clearly outperforming Thaiss right now.  We'll see how it rolls out long term.  As long as one of them ends up hitting in the major leagues, I'm happy. 

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3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Yeah.  Like you said before, I think it comes down to Thaiss or Ward.  One of them will stay and one of them will go and ultimately, it'll come down to offense.  Ward is clearly outperforming Thaiss right now.  We'll see how it rolls out long term.  As long as one of them ends up hitting in the major leagues, I'm happy. 

There's just so much to like to Ward's offensive game right now. Thaiss has plenty of encouraging signs still, but Ward's upside is far, far above. Being on the 40-man already helps a lot too.

Should Ward stake a claim playing primarily 1B (though I've liked what I've seem from him in LF too), it makes total sense for Thaiss to pick up some time at 3B to help his chances. 

Now that Jared Walsh is on the 40-man though, he presents a really interesting wild card. If he comes up and mashes, it really starts to create a (very positive) logjam. 

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1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I saw him when he was a starter.  He was completely unremarkable, throwing 90-92.  Even after he moved to the pen, he still wasn't throwing hard at first, more than likely 93 or 94.  Then something clicked and he was dialing it up in the upper-90's.  Now he's dialing back down into the mid-90's which is where he'll probably stay at because he's having the most success there. 

Mid 90s combined with that slider and good command = potential K-Rod II ?   K-Rod was also a starter until beginning of the 2002 season in the minors.

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4 hours ago, Second Base said:

Sometimes, AAA is less developmental and more of an extended major league roster.  Offensively, I'd agree, Ward isn't going to gain a ton from Salt Lake.  Defensively, he can definitely improve.  Basically, he's just getting everyday AB's and is in the holding zone, waiting for him MLB promotion.  But as a 1B/3B/LF/emergency catcher, his positional versatility will likely keep him in the majors.  His bat will ultimately dictate the role he'll have in the majors though. 

As I see it:

Rookie ball: first taste of pro ball; see how amateur skills translate, determine what needs to be worked on.

A/A+: Work on baseball skills through experience and coaching. 

AA: Face higher competition - how does the work at A/A+ translate vs. better pitchers or hitters?

AAA: Polish skills, extended major league bench.

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42 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Jose Soriano had a solid start once again. 

5.0 IP  6 SO  2 ER  3 BB  3 H

His command/ Control needs working but he's going towards the right direction! he's another top 100 prospect by the end of the year.

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Jam Jones looks to have gone back to his previous setup.  Hands higher and more back with the bat angle parallel to the ground as opposed to perpendicular.  

the other thing I felt was odd is that there was a lead off double in the 6th and they had him attempt to bunt a runner over with no outs in a game where the Bears were down 1-0.  He failed on two attempts and ended up popping out.  Personally not a fan of that.  

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Posted (edited)

So -- as all of you probably know...  AAA is now using MLB issue baseballs.   The talk around MLB is that the baseballs are juiced again -- so the following bit of information is pretty interesting.

PARK FACTORS (LHB / RHB)
K: 98 90   nB: 99 104
gbH: 109 111   ofH: 111 106
1B: 106 107   GB: 98 97
2/3B: 121 109   FB: 97 111
HR: 83 89   LD: 109 108
Runs: 100 105   IF: 111 91

SLC is keeping the ball in the park -- it's still making magic happen when it comes to 2/3Bs but the run index is WAY down and the HR index is extremely down.

Available updated info on the other parks

AA

PARK FACTORS (LHB / RHB)
K: 97 101   nB: 101 97
gbH: 105 100   ofH: 103 95
1B: 100 94   GB: 100 100
2/3B: 119 108   FB: 102 100
HR: 89 120   LD: 104 102
Runs: 96 114   IF: 87 98

A+

PARK FACTORS (LHB / RHB)
K: 106 111   nB: 97 98
gbH: 91 89   ofH: 100 100
1B: 94 95   GB: 98 96
2/3B: 98 101   FB: 98 96
HR: 83 81   LD: 99 98
Runs: 88 92   IF: 104 104

High and and AA are both murdering LHBs right now -- AA is RHB friendly..

Edited by Inside Pitch

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7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

So -- as all of you probably know...  AAA is now using MLB issue baseballs.   The talk around MLB is that the baseballs are juiced again -- so the following bit of information is pretty interesting.

PARK FACTORS (LHB / RHB)
K: 98 90   nB: 99 104
gbH: 109 111   ofH: 111 106
1B: 106 107   GB: 98 97
2/3B: 121 109   FB: 97 111
HR: 83 89   LD: 109 108
Runs: 100 105   IF: 111 91

SLC is keeping the ball in the park -- it's still making magic happen when it comes to 2/3Bs but the run index is WAY down and the HR index is extremely down.

Available updated info on the other parks

AA

PARK FACTORS (LHB / RHB)
K: 97 101   nB: 101 97
gbH: 105 100   ofH: 103 95
1B: 100 94   GB: 100 100
2/3B: 119 108   FB: 102 100
HR: 89 120   LD: 104 102
Runs: 96 114   IF: 87 98

A+

PARK FACTORS (LHB / RHB)
K: 106 111   nB: 97 98
gbH: 91 89   ofH: 100 100
1B: 94 95   GB: 98 96
2/3B: 98 101   FB: 98 96
HR: 83 81   LD: 99 98
Runs: 88 92   IF: 104 104

High and and AA are both murdering LHBs right now -- AA is RHB friendly..

Marsh hit an absolute rocket to RCF last night that I thought was certainly a hr off the bat and it hit off the wall for a double.  

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19 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Marsh hit an absolute rocket to RCF last night that I thought was certainly a hr off the bat and it hit off the wall for a double.  

Its nice to see the information make sense out of some of what we are seeing.  Agree with you that Marsh looks poised to go apeshit.

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The balls are juiced again....at least I think they are.  In 2017 HR's skyrocketed upward at an unheard of rate, right after the ball was changed.  MLB sees the effect and goes back to a more deadened ball for 2018 and sees the HR's level out.  2019 rolls around and here they are flying out at a pace even higher than before.  Pitchers aren't getting worse.  Hitters aren't getting better at a rate that quickly.  Ball park dimensions aren't changing en masse.  That leaves bats and balls as the main culprits.  

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1 minute ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think they pushed Jones along too quickly.  

He hit .302/.368/.488 in 41 games in A+ in 2017 at age 19, so there was good reason to think that he'd do OK in AA the following year. And he did "OK": .235/.338/.383. The conventional wisdom was that he didn't hit as well as hoped because he transitioned (back) to 2B, but that always rang a bit hollow to me.

He's been showing signs of life and is still just 21 years old. But yeah, I think the prospect sparkle has dimmed a bit. 

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1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

He hit .302/.368/.488 in 41 games in A+ in 2017 at age 19, so there was good reason to think that he'd do OK in AA the following year. And he did "OK": .235/.338/.383. The conventional wisdom was that he didn't hit as well as hoped because he transitioned (back) to 2B, but that always rang a bit hollow to me.

He's been showing signs of life and is still just 21 years old. But yeah, I think the prospect sparkle has dimmed a bit. 

It most certainly has. He did well in the AFL which is a comparable level to AA, so it isn't as if he's incapable. He's just struggling for an extebded period of time. I'm sure he'll pull out of it, though the overall line won't look as good because the damage has been done. 

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A bit more on Jones. I'm really of two minds on him. The pessimist thinks he's a dud, that he's maxed out in AA and won't be more than a bench player in the majors. The optimist says that at some point it will all click and he'll be ready and a major league star. It might be a in few months or a few years.

The truth is probably somewhere in-between, but i almost think it is more either/or with him: either he's a scrub or a star. Either it all clicks or it doesn't. I sure hope it does.

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29 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

A bit more on Jones. I'm really of two minds on him. The pessimist thinks he's a dud, that he's maxed out in AA and won't be more than a bench player in the majors. The optimist says that at some point it will all click and he'll be ready and a major league star. It might be a in few months or a few years.

The truth is probably somewhere in-between, but i almost think it is more either/or with him: either he's a scrub or a star. Either it all clicks or it doesn't. I sure hope it does.

I can pretty much guarantee he hasn't topped out in AA, particularly at age 21. But physically he hasn't developed like myself and most other believes he would, at least not yet anyway. So it feels like being a star is quite the reach right now. 

I think end of the day,  in his prime he'll be a major league starting 2B that pays a .330 OBP and goes 15/15. Not a star. 

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On 5/15/2019 at 12:11 AM, Angelsjunky said:

Looks like Salt Lake has a new hitter, has quite a power bat evidently.

i hope he's there long enough to lead them to post season glory.

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Kyle Bradish is really doing well in San Berdoo. In 33 innings pitched he has only given up 1 home run and is sporting a 2.45 era. I really need to get out to a game and see this kid pitch. 

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2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Kyle Bradish is really doing well in San Berdoo. In 33 innings pitched he has only given up 1 home run and is sporting a 2.45 era. I really need to get out to a game and see this kid pitch. 

Seems like there are a lot of no-namers like this who are really pitching well.

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23 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Seems like there are a lot of no-namers like this who are really pitching well.

Yep, they went so pitcher heavy last year that hopefully we will see some movement from the farm in their ability to develop arms.  After the 2nd round 15 of the next 16 players drafted were pitchers.  

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