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Chuckster70

What's up with all these 1-year deals?

56 posts in this topic

Something is going on.

Is it...

A. Try to win cheap on 1 year dealios in 2019. Crossing fingers. Sacrificing chickens. Arte has a new crop of billboards lined up in 2020?

B. Eppler and Arte are going to extend Trout and sign one or two of Machado/Harper and then CAKE-L?

and I'm also drunk, but it's all good. I just got back from an open bar work event. #burp

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I will say these one-year deals are starting to add up, even if it's just for 2019. Considering the hit rates on these Espinozarts so far, there's a good chance they could have had a Grandal for two guys who will most likely do nothing and get cut. I know, east coast, etc.

Or they could have skipped all these guys and gotten Harper at 1/35. 

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2 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

Honestly does look like they're just trying to keep the books as clean as possible for the time being. Part of that is likely to lock Trout up but also because they clearly want to prime themselves up to be serious contenders over a long stretch from 2020+

 

 

I still feel like the FA class this year was smoke and mirrors outside of Harper and Machado.  Corbin was worth pursuing but got a silly contract because he was really the only other guy worth getting and WSN new it.  

2021 free agent class and age at FA.

SP - Skaggs (29), Trevor Bauer (30), Taijuan Walker (28), Chad Bettis (32), Danny Salazar (31), Robbie Ray (29), Kyle Hendricks (31), Marcus Stroman (30), Aaron Sanchez (28), Jose Quintana (32), Garrett Richards (33), Masahiro Tanaka (32), Jake Arrieta (35).  

OF - Mookie Betts (28), George Springer (31), Jackie Bradley (31), David Peralta (33), Joc Pederson (29), Michael Brantley (34), Yoenis Cespedes (35)

IF - Marcus Semien (30), Jurickson Profar (28), Jake Lamb (30),  Cesar Hernandez (31), Andrelton Simmons (31), Matt Carpenter (35), Justin Turner (36)

C - JT Realmuto (30)

Here's something I hadn't thought of before. The pitching market is fairly flush yet the position player market isn't great outside of a couple guys.  Is it possible that the reason Eppler and co have gone heavier on high upside position players in the draft and intl. is because of that?  Maybe be a reach, but perhaps not a total coincidence.  

 

 

 

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Just now, Randy Gradishar said:

I will say these one-year deals are starting to add up, even if it's just for 2019. Considering the hit rates on these Espinozarts so far, there's a good chance they could have had a Grandal for two guys who will most likely do nothing and get cut. I know, east coast, etc.

Or they could have skipped all these guys and gotten Harper at 1/35. 

I know it sucks to think about, but if they don't have a ton of confidence in 2019/20, two years of Grandal does them very little good at the price he got for 1yr.  Where as a guy that costs you way less and could end up a trade piece might actually be worth more.  

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Just now, Dochalo said:

I know it sucks to think about, but if they don't have a ton of confidence in 2019/20, two years of Grandal does them very little good at the price he got for 1yr.  Where as a guy that costs you way less and could end up a trade piece might actually be worth more.  

Well I was thinking 1 year for Grandy. And that was just an example for how they are going quantity over quality so far. It's all about the expected value, risk aversion, and value of roster spots.

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5 minutes ago, Randy Gradishar said:

Well I was thinking 1 year for Grandy. And that was just an example for how they are going quantity over quality so far. It's all about the expected value, risk aversion, and value of roster spots.

but a 1yr 18m deal and lose a pick.  What are the odds you get enough out of him in production or even trade value to make that up?  

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6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

but a 1yr 18m deal and lose a pick.  What are the odds you get enough out of him in production or even trade value to make that up?  

Still just an example, although I realize there aren't really any other guys who have gotten more than what the Angels have been paying, and on a one-year deal.

Still, the Angels could theoretically have just paid $40M+ for like 2 WAR this season. If so, there's a pretty good chance a Britton or even a Corbin beats that $/WAR over the life of their deal.

I actually like what they've done, especially since they could get lucky and have a super-team. But I'm just pointing out the other side that these 1-year deals aren't free.

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C. Rengifo, Fletcher, Hermosillo, Ward, Thaiss, Canning, Suarez, Jones, Adell, Marsh, Sandoval.

That's a lot of talented young players who will be major league ready within the next year or so. Maybe they spend on a premium free agent, either a Chris Sale or Gerrit Cole, or possibly Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt.

Allen is also another player that can probably be traded at the deadline. 

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2 hours ago, Randy Gradishar said:

I will say these one-year deals are starting to add up, even if it's just for 2019. Considering the hit rates on these Espinozarts so far, there's a good chance they could have had a Grandal for two guys who will most likely do nothing and get cut. I know, east coast, etc.

Or they could have skipped all these guys and gotten Harper at 1/35. 

Looking at the roster in November we needed 2 starting pitchers, a catcher, bullpen help and a plan for 1B. Eppler did all of this. Will it pan out? Time will tell but I think these signings put us in a good place to start the season and we are better off than if we had only adressed a couple of the holes with higher priced, multi year contracts. 

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25 minutes ago, RBM said:

Looking at the roster in November we needed 2 starting pitchers, a catcher, bullpen help and a plan for 1B. Eppler did all of this. Will it pan out? Time will tell but I think these signings put us in a good place to start the season and we are better off than if we had only adressed a couple of the holes with higher priced, multi year contracts. 

And all of them--Bour, Lucroy, Harvey, Cahill, Allen--share three things: 1) They are one year deals, and thus not long-term commitments; 2) They can potentially be moved for prospects; and 3) They all have upside from 2018.

Billy Eppler is a smart man.

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9 minutes ago, RBM said:

Looking at the roster in November we needed 2 starting pitchers, a catcher, bullpen help and a plan for 1B. Eppler did all of this. Will it pan out? Time will tell but I think these signings put us in a good place to start the season and we are better off than if we had only adressed a couple of the holes with higher priced, multi year contracts. 

I think this is the most important thing to remember about the off season.  

-got a bench bat with a career .345 obp for almost nothing that can play 2b/3b (Angels had a .263 obp as a PHer last year)
-got a 1b for 2.5m with an additional year of control.  We had a sRC+ of 77 at 1b last year with an obp of .280.  Over the last 3 years, a wRC+ of 89 with an obp of .295.  Even in a down year, the guy we got had a 107 wRC+ in 2018 with a .341 obp.  
-we had 281 ip from 12 starters and a 5.14 era.  Replaced with two players that pitched a total of 255 ip with a 4.38 era.  Not a tremendous upgrade but still substantial.  
-replaced a C with a 73 wRC+ in 2018 and wRC+ of 72 for his career known as an excellent defender with a player also know for his defense and a wRC+ of 70 in 2018 and 104 for his career.  At worst a lateral move.  
-added a pen arm that's been a closer his entire career who had an off year in 2018 that displaces the bottom of the rest of the bullpen.  Making it less like that the 67.2 ip we got from 12 players and a 5.85 era happens again.  
 

 

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10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

if you can't get your target guy on a multi-year deal, don't sign a guy you're not all that high on for fewer years just because he's the next best option.   Go with a solid one year option on a guy with upside so if he does well and the team doesn't, you can trade him and if he doesn't do well then f'it.  It's one year.  

By this logic though Doc, it suggests that Eppler isn't high on anyone he signed.

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22 minutes ago, Torridd said:

By this logic though Doc, it suggests that Eppler isn't high on anyone he signed.

Or he's hedging his bets by signing guys that could bring in value should shit go sideways.    All these one year deals are low risk in that there is no carryover.  If none of it works then they wipe the slate clean next year, the only carryover being the stigma that they failed again.   So, either Eppler gets canned because none of it worked or his replacement gets to work with a relatively stain free canvas..  AP being the lone stain.

Tell you what I find telling...    For years we read how Arte was a meddlesome owner, how he involved himself in the player acquisitions and how that had negatively impacted the franchise.  Arte views things much more like the majority of AW.com does -- he's a fan, he grew up looking at triple slash numbers  so there is little doubt he's looking at this team with the same level of "meh" fans are IMO.  

Good or bad, this is not an Arte driven roster.   This is a risk averse off-season where the design seems to be to facilitate the transition towards a better future.  There is no guarantee of success which is what we as fans want to see -- but there is little concern that there will be lingering damage done.

 

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I like the one year deals - unions and multi-year deals promote complacency... in a one-year deal, dudes have to put up or shut up and fight for their lives... if there's anything in the tank, we benefit!

 

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