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GrittyVeterans

Team has gotten worse?

54 posts in this topic

Call me crazy but this team actually looks worse than last year on paper to me. The one big upgrade is Bour over Pujols but we will see if he plays everyday. Also It'd be hard to get worse production than we did out of Valbuena and Marte.

Comes down to the pitching...and man are we throwing shit at the wall and hoping something sticks. Trevor Cahill looks like another Blanton to me. Maybe he's mediocre, maybe he gets blown up like he did in 2017. Matt Harvey? Has upside but will be on the DL by June let's be real. Perfect replacement for Garrett Richards in many ways. Heaney, Skaggs... I think we know what we're getting out of at this point. Slightly above average pitchers. Hopefully Barria won't have a sophomore slump

The offense...kind of a disaster still.Didn't really add much of significance. How long will Ohtani be out? Are Fletcher and Ward MLB hitters? Will Upton regress as he enters his 30s? Calhoun, Cozart, Lucroy...LOL

Overall it's much of the same lousy group as last year that relies far too much on Trout, Ohtani, and Simmons in order to just be mediocre

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But no we haven’t gotten worse.  Kole won’t be the worst player in baseball for two months.  Upton will be better with RISP.  More at bats from Ohtani.   No Marte, Cowart or Valbuena.  Lucroy will be better than Maldonado. More certainty for the #5 starter.   Heaney and Skaggs another year removed from TJ surgery.  Look at Skaggs stats after his first 19 starts last year.  A ton of hard throwers in the pen and a new pitching coach who has worked wonders with some hard throwers in Houston.   We also may not be done yet.   

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2 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Call me crazy but this team actually looks worse than last year on paper to me. The one big upgrade is Bour over Pujols but we will see if he plays everyday. Also It'd be hard to get worse production than we did out of Valbuena and Marte.

Comes down to the pitching...and man are we throwing shit at the wall and hoping something sticks. Trevor Cahill looks like another Blanton to me. Maybe he's mediocre, maybe he gets blown up like he did in 2017. Matt Harvey? Has upside but will be on the DL by June let's be real. Perfect replacement for Garrett Richards in many ways. Heaney, Skaggs... I think we know what we're getting out of at this point. Slightly above average pitchers. Hopefully Barria won't have a sophomore slump

The offense...kind of a disaster still.Didn't really add much of significance. How long will Ohtani be out? Are Fletcher and Ward MLB hitters? Will Upton regress as he enters his 30s? Calhoun, Cozart, Lucroy...LOL

Overall it's much of the same lousy group as last year that relies far too much on Trout, Ohtani, and Simmons in order to just be mediocre

Crazy.

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Bour and Lucroy are better hitters then the ones they are replacing. Cahill is solid, Harvey and Allen wildcards. LA Stella is decent bench player luckily its all one years deals. 

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3 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Call me crazy but this team actually looks worse than last year on paper to me. The one big upgrade is Bour over Pujols but we will see if he plays everyday. Also It'd be hard to get worse production than we did out of Valbuena and Marte.

The parts that remain from last year ...  Trout (10.2), Ohtani (3.9), Upton (3.8), Simmons (6.2), Cozart (0.1 224 ABs), (Fletcher 2.0), (Albatross 0.5) Calhoun (0.7)
The parts they removed from last yr ....  Marte (-0.4), Valbuena (-0.9), Kowart (-1.0), Maldonado (0.5 both teams), 
The parts they have added this year ....  Lucroy (1.9), Bour (1.0), LaStella (0.2), K Smith (0.7)  Projected fWAR 2019.

On paper.... they are better.   On paper, Fangraphs projects the Angels position players to combine for the third best fWAR in MLB at 30.1 behind Boston 31.7, and the Dodgers 30.4.  https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1
 
Mind you that includes defense so it's overvaluing Cozart and nearly 1/3 of that is due to Trout, but again -- this is a purely "on paper" analysis by a completely impartial party.  So, it's not "yes man" homerism, it's not "Aw.com brainwashing", it's a purely analytical look at what the Angels position players could amount to...   On Paper, they project well...  and this is pretty much excluding all the minor league guys who could potentially come up and help.

3 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Comes down to the pitching...and man are we throwing shit at the wall and hoping something sticks. Trevor Cahill looks like another Blanton to me. Maybe he's mediocre, maybe he gets blown up like he did in 2017. Matt Harvey? Has upside but will be on the DL by June let's be real. Perfect replacement for Garrett Richards in many ways. Heaney, Skaggs... I think we know what we're getting out of at this point. Slightly above average pitchers. Hopefully Barria won't have a sophomore slump

This is the actual issue.   

Nobody knows what they will get out of the pen -- and all the primary reason why they could all be awful is the same reason they could all surprise and be good -- reliever volatility.  Allen is a name and had a track record but he's also shown signs of decline (the velocity issues).   The best thing that can be said about the back end of the rotation is that it likely has a high floor, but there is potential for catastrophe there.   The upside -- Canning and Suarez.   There is potential upside with the farm, but those aren't safe bets.  Heaney and Skaggs at worst are solid mid rotation guys but using the same criteria as above -- the Angels pitching staff projects as the the 9th best unit in the AL, in an amazing three way tie with the Athletics, and the Rangers at 10.0 fWAR.

So do you believe one and shit on the other -- and if so, which one do you buy and which one do you punt on.   Purely based on probability -- there are larger more complete track records with the position players and because of the nature of pitching (RP), and injury history significantly more potential for boon or bust on the mound.
 

3 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

The offense...kind of a disaster still.Didn't really add much of significance. How long will Ohtani be out? Are Fletcher and Ward MLB hitters? Will Upton regress as he enters his 30s? Calhoun, Cozart, Lucroy...LOL

The offense is lopsided but hardly a disaster -- at least the data doesn't support your opinion.   Taking the pessimistic approach with every possible position is as silly as going the other way and assuming everyone will improve.  Calhoun was a disaster last year -- Cozart was injured and bad.   But there is more there than you are giving them credit for and even the Red Sox ran out three positions that combined for negative WARs last year (C, 2B, 3B).

3 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Overall it's much of the same lousy group as last year that relies far too much on Trout, Ohtani, and Simmons in order to just be mediocre

Right now...  Fangraphs has them as an 85 win team.  Last year they had them as an 82 win team on opening day.   It's a projection so it should be taken with a grain of salt but on paper -- they have improved.   85 wins projects to them missing the playoffs.  The Rays are sitting on 86 wins.    https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings   So, they are in the conversation at least.

Edited by Inside Pitch

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15 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They have done exactly what Eppler said they were doing. 

They made as many small short term improvements as they could to give themselves a chance at the playoffs this year, while sacrificing none of the farm system and taking on no large financial commitments. 

They have a chance at 90 wins this year, and next year the farm system will be even better. Remember, an improving farm system helps you in 3 ways: the players play for you, they save you money to spend on established players, they give you capital to spend to trade for other players. A good farm system is the only way to have an extended window of success, so they’ve been operating around that. It’s like having half the store open while you’re doing renovations, as opposed to closing the whole place (tanking).

Next year’s FA’s include OC natives Gerrit Cole and Nolan Arenado. 

 

get to know me zooey deschanel GIF

Waiting for news next years big time FA class only to have it be like the current year.

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