Dochalo

Who would you protect in an expansion draft?

30 posts in this topic

The talk of adding two mlb franchises got me thinking about who to protect in an expansion draft.  

The rules in previous expansion drafts were that you could protect 15 players from the entire org including the minors for the first round adding 3 players to protect in each round.  Only one player from each team can be drafted per round.  14 players would be selected in rounds 1 and 2 and then 7 in round three (per team).  So 70 total players.  Those not eligible are those without mlb experience who had less than three years of service time if signed at 19 or older or 4 years of service time if signed at 18 or younger

The draft, of course, would have been held prior to the FA period so any FA we signed this year wouldn't have been eligible.  

My list would include:  Trout, Simmons, Ohtani, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Buttrey, Anderson, Rengifo, Middleton, Ward, Fletcher, Upton, Suarez, Tropeano.  

guys left unprotected would be Hermosillo, Felix Pena, JC Ramirez.  

It's a tough call now, but imagine 2-3 years from now?  damn.  

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Wouldn't Jahmai Jones have to be protected? Drafted at 17, four years of service time. Matt Thaiss, too: drafted at 21 but with three years of service time. Or am I misunderstanding?

Otherwise I like your list although I'd swap Upton for Hermosillo. Upton is good, but I'm not crazy about the last two years of his contract so wouldn't be crushed if he was lost.

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Interesting scenario to think through. I like the list you have here. Ward is  listed twice so I would protect Tropeano, Thaiss or even Bedrosian (still think he has value). JC Ramirez would probably be safe because he's still in recovery. Tough call. And yeah, it's a good sign for the future thinking about how much more difficult it will be 2-3 years from now with the young guys in the mix.

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4 minutes ago, RBM said:

Interesting scenario to think through. I like the list you have here. Ward is  listed twice so I would protect Tropeano, Thaiss or even Bedrosian (still think he has value). JC Ramirez would probably be safe because he's still in recovery. Tough call. And yeah, it's a good sign for the future thinking about how much more difficult it will be 2-3 years from now with the young guys in the mix.

That's right, if Jahmai Jones would need to be protected then he takes the spot of the second Ward.

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17 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Wouldn't Jahmai Jones have to be protected? Drafted at 17, four years of service time. Matt Thaiss, too: drafted at 21 but with three years of service time. Or am I misunderstanding?

Otherwise I like your list although I'd swap Upton for Hermosillo. Upton is good, but I'm not crazy about the last two years of his contract so wouldn't be crushed if he was lost.

Does his first partial year count?  If so, then yeah, I would protect him.  And Thaiss.  I agree about Upton.  I actually had Herm on there over him and swapped it out last second.  

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10 minutes ago, RBM said:

Interesting scenario to think through. I like the list you have here. Ward is  listed twice so I would protect Tropeano, Thaiss or even Bedrosian (still think he has value). JC Ramirez would probably be safe because he's still in recovery. Tough call. And yeah, it's a good sign for the future thinking about how much more difficult it will be 2-3 years from now with the young guys in the mix.

corrected.  Trop in.  But if we have to protect Thaiss and Jones then we also have to protect Sandoval.  It's starting to get pretty tough.  

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2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

corrected.  Trop in.  But if we have to protect Thaiss and Jones then we also have to protect Sandoval.  It's starting to get pretty tough.  

I don't know if rookie ball partial season would count but if it did then yeah, it gets super tough. I would protect Jones and Sandoval definitely and probably leave Tropeano and Anderson unprotected. 

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2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

If Thaiss, Jones and Sandoval are eligible, my first 15 would be:

Trout, Ohtani, Simmons, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Ward, Fletcher, Thaiss, Rengifo, Suarez, Jones, Sandoval, Buttrey, Hermosillo.

The only change I would consider, and it's a tough call, would be to protect Upton over Hermosillo. I think we would need him in the lineup now and an expansion team may grab him to anchor their lineup. Then again, an expansion team could probably find a more cost effective fit through FA this year - Adam Jones, Brantley, McCutchen or Pollock so maybe you leave him out there and if he gets taken you get one of them. Lot's to consider.

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How do we know that MLB won't want to do what NHL did with Vegas expansion draft & change the rules to give them a favorable expansion draft ?

Also i hope they don't make it so we have to protect Pujols cause of a no movement clause or something.

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I am not familiar enough with all our prospects to give a reply to whom I would protect. However, in an effort to keep this going or even expand upon it and maybe this deserves a thread of its own, but assuming you were a GM if an expansion team, how would you build your roster. Would you go for the best possible team now to energize your fan base?  Would you build a team upon as many young, high upside prospects as you could?  Would you do a mix of major league talent and prospects?  Perhaps you would build a team with as many players as possible to flip at the next trade deadline to bring in some of the higher level prospects that were protected?  I imagine one could build quite an effective pen with an expansion draft along the lines later out by the OP. 

 

Was just curious where where most of you stand. 

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6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

It's a tough call now, but imagine 2-3 years from now?  damn

Interesting, because I actually wouldn’t be surprised if this happened in the near-future. Maybe not quite 2-3 years, but I think expansion isn’t far from being a real possibility and it could come together quickly.

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3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Interesting, because I actually wouldn’t be surprised if this happened in the near-future. Maybe not quite 2-3 years, but I think expansion isn’t far from being a real possibility and it could come together quickly.

I don't think MLB will be expanding until a few things are shaken out....

1. The ball park and location issues with Oakland and Tampa Bay are resolved, likely the Angels situation too.  The A's are likely staying put because the have the necessary fan base, they just need the room.  So this shouldn't be that big of a deal.  But Tampa Bay's plans keep getting nixed.  I think chances are they'll be in Montreal in three years, and Oakland will be in a new ball park in 4-5.  The Angels never looked at moving anywhere but Southern California, so it's a matter of building a new stadium or renovating the current one.  I think we can expect a major ball park renovation occurring, likely between the 2020 and 2021 offseason.  Other projects will bleed over into the season, but the Angels should have a finished product by 2022. 

2. A new labor contract needs to be hammered out.  There's a lot of talk about a potential work stoppage after this CBA is concluded, and MLB would lose a ton of fans all over again, just like they did in 1994.  So baseball needs to that hammer that out before they do anything. That's three years down the road. 

3. They need to figure out what's going on currently, and what's in the fold for the future.  Attendance is down league wide, and not just a little bit.  Ticket prices are going up, owners have more revenue than they ever had, but less is being spent on players, at least percentage wise.  MLB needs to figure out why fans aren't coming to the games, and devise a way to fix it.  Once that happens, then yeah, we'll see expansion.  This may take 3-4 years. 

Earliest possible expansion will be taking place in 2023, and that's an EXTREMELY optimistic view.  Realistically, we won't see expansion until 2026 or later.  

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15 hours ago, Freezer said:

I am not familiar enough with all our prospects to give a reply to whom I would protect. However, in an effort to keep this going or even expand upon it and maybe this deserves a thread of its own, but assuming you were a GM if an expansion team, how would you build your roster. Would you go for the best possible team now to energize your fan base?  Would you build a team upon as many young, high upside prospects as you could?  Would you do a mix of major league talent and prospects?  Perhaps you would build a team with as many players as possible to flip at the next trade deadline to bring in some of the higher level prospects that were protected?  I imagine one could build quite an effective pen with an expansion draft along the lines later out by the OP. 

Was just curious where where most of you stand. 

Odds are that veteran players the caliber of which you would need in order to become competitive immediately would not be left unprotected by their current clubs. Players who were not earning their contracts would be left out in the open. They might give you decent production, but at an extremely high cost. If you are starting with a clean slate, the last thing that you want is to load up the payroll with veterans who aren't living up to expectations. Name familiarity might put some butts in the seats early on, but losing would soon offset that. I would consider picking up decently valued veteran talent, but I would mostly build with young players who might actually be there for a while. When you are building a local identity,  if a major chunk of your roster leaves after year or two, it's harder to do that.

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16 hours ago, totdprods said:

Interesting, because I actually wouldn’t be surprised if this happened in the near-future. Maybe not quite 2-3 years, but I think expansion isn’t far from being a real possibility and it could come together quickly.

the next CBA is after the 2021 season.  I think it's definitely something that could be discussed by then.  We'll hopefully have Trout and Simmons under longer term deals.  I think we'll have at least one high paid pitcher by then.  Maybe two.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  

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On ‎2‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 12:05 AM, Angelsjunky said:

Wouldn't Jahmai Jones have to be protected? Drafted at 17, four years of service time. Matt Thaiss, too: drafted at 21 but with three years of service time. Or am I misunderstanding?

Otherwise I like your list although I'd swap Upton for Hermosillo. Upton is good, but I'm not crazy about the last two years of his contract so wouldn't be crushed if he was lost.

Hermosillo has no value , he cant hit MLB pitching.

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Quickly read through the thread and I would point out that if expansion does happen, it is likely to be a 2-team expansion to bring the Leagues up to an even 32 which seems to be a preferable number in terms of 16 teams per League, 4 teams per Division.

So double the numbers potentially.

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Not sure if i remember correctly, but the D'Backs and Rays were able to draft players in the June draft a year ahead of the expansion draft. Those 2 teams had the minor league program set up before the expansion draft. And they could sign minor league free agents a year before, to help stock up their minor league ranks. Or something along these lines.

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I don't think I would protect Tropeano as his history of arm issues may keep him from being picked. Also, Fletcher and Rengifo as Slappy Utility guys have been our forte for many years. And you can find one on the waiver wire/Free Agency to stash as the 25th man on the roster almost regularly. 

The hard choices for me would be Ward who I'm not extremely high on unlike everyone else around here. And Middleton as he is returning from TJ.

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As these rules are outlined I don't think this is a big deal for the Angels as it stands currently, and honestly it seems really difficult for an expansion team to make significant headway here.

Excluding players under 23 from the draft essentially means teams are selecting low value short term assets.

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On 2/4/2019 at 5:36 AM, Freezer said:

I am not familiar enough with all our prospects to give a reply to whom I would protect. However, in an effort to keep this going or even expand upon it and maybe this deserves a thread of its own, but assuming you were a GM if an expansion team, how would you build your roster. Would you go for the best possible team now to energize your fan base?  Would you build a team upon as many young, high upside prospects as you could?  Would you do a mix of major league talent and prospects?  Perhaps you would build a team with as many players as possible to flip at the next trade deadline to bring in some of the higher level prospects that were protected?  I imagine one could build quite an effective pen with an expansion draft along the lines later out by the OP. 

 

Was just curious where where most of you stand. 

Great response Freezer!!!!

I would go with a few Names maybe to put butts in the stands in the every day lineup. Even some that I could flip immediately (contract price wouldn't matter to me) or at the end of year one or two I could flip for Prospects. It is just so hard to figure out which players the other teams would keep. Depending on their system and who would be eligible. (After I played along the name thing became non-existent)! But, depending on the rules maybe half the kids I drafted wouldn't be eligible?...I know I would go after some Free Agents also. Moose would be one of them, as would Adam Jones. You could put together a pretty good roster just out of the remaining Free Agents today.

Two-three solid Starting pitchers and a Closer and set-up men I could flip. 

The rest would be kids with upside and players with a specific skill set that would accommodate a position or spot on the roster (platoon type guys) these players would also eventually be flipped for prospects. 

ex. 

1B/DH - Votto - Reds /Myers - Padres/Thames - Brewers/Schwarber -Cubs

2B - Hampson - Rockies

SS -  Aledmys Díaz - Astros

3B - Lamb - D-Backs

C - Mejia - Padres

LF - Williams - Phillies

CF - Hicks - Yankees

RF -  Nimmo - Mets

 

BENCH: 

UTIL - Fletcher - Angels

OF/1B - O'Neil - Cardinals 

2B/3B - Jedd Gyorko - Cardinals

C - Haase - Indians

OF - Pederson - Dodgers

 

SP - 

Hendricks - Cubs

Gray - Rockies

Wacha - Cardinals

Stripling - Dodgers

Rodon - White Sox

RP -

Soria - A's

Knebel - Brewers

Green - Yankees

Minaya - White Sox

Venters - Braves

Barraclough - Nationals

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