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totdprods

Since April 5th...

48 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Thanks for the information.

Great post.

My only solace is in knowing that better players are coming from the farm and not free agency.  This might just be a teaser year.

The offense is likely going to see some regression, but adding Ohtani, eventually Upton, and hopefully increased development and presence of guys like Rengifo, Walsh, Ward mitigate that. 
Ausmus deserves credit there - he has tended to bench struggling hitters without hesitation when better hitters were available. Cozart's barely played. Bour sat quickly. 

The rotation has to get better, right? Cahill won't keep going with an 8+ ERA, he'll get cut if so. Skaggs should pitch better. Suarez could enter the fold once he hits 90 pitches in a game, like Canning. He's throw 79, 82, and 86 so far, and Heaney starts tonight. Barria is still out there. That's three legitimate internal options right there that should find themselves in the mix within the next two weeks, at most, if struggles continue.

The bullpen has been used heavily, but I'm not seeing anything too flukey or unsustainable. Middleton and JC loom as help, as does Tropeano, Cole, Jewell, Peters, Ramsey...the saving grace is all of these guys have options, and we're seeing Eppler keep guys refreshed. They might be able to keep this up if the rotation can eventually stabilize.

And yes - we haven't touched the farm - there's depth and promise ahead.

Edited by totdprods

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Great post. I still dont think we are at are full potential. WIth Upton back there will be more protection in the line up for Trout and Ohtani. If we had one more starting pitcher...

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before anyone asks . . .

en·tro·py
/ˈentrəpē/
noun
  1. 1. 
    PHYSICS
    a thermodynamic quantity representing the unavailability of a system's thermal energy for conversion into mechanical work, often interpreted as the degree of disorder or randomness in the system.
  2. 2. 
    lack of order or predictability; gradual decline into disorder.
    "a marketplace where entropy reigns supreme"

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13 hours ago, totdprods said:

The Angels started the season 1-6, scoring 17 runs, and allowing 31. 
However, their season 'turned around' on April 5th with their second win of the year, and since then, they have:

  • Posted a record of 20-18, despite an awful 2-10 stretch in the middle.
  • Scored 205 runs (5.3 runs per game) and allowed 191 (5 runs per game)
  • The Starting Nine have posted a collective .274/.352/.490/.842 (!!!) slash (average 2019 AL slash is .247/.321/.425/.746)
    • C : Lucroy: .269/.339/.481/.820
    • 1B: Bour: .184/.279/.368/.647
    • 2B: La Stella: .318/.402/.636/1.037
    • 3B: Fletcher: .301/.345/.444/.789
    • SS: Simmons: .319/.343/.456/.800
    • LF: Goodwin: .298/.370/.479/.849
    • CF: Trout: .295/.463/.682/1.045
    • RF: Calhoun: .240/.329/.481/.809
    • DH: Pujols: .244/.299/.480/.779
       
  • As we all know, the rotation has been the issue - 6.08 ERA - excluding Canning and 'openers':
    • Skaggs: 7 GS, 5.15 ERA, averaging 5 IP/GS
    • Cahill: 7 GS, 8.16 ERA, averaging 4.2 IP/GS
    • Harvey: 7 GS, 5.60 ERA, averaging 5 IP/GS
    • Pena: 7 G/3 GS, 2.83 ERA, averaging 5 IP/GS
    • Stratton: 6 G/4 GS, 8.64 ERA
    • Really, no other data is needed to get the point across at how terrible they've been.
       
  • The bulk of the pen has continued to pitch well despite heavy use:
    • Buttrey: 20.2 IP, 0.87 ERA, 4 BB, 26 K, 0 HR, .211 BAA
    • Bedrosian: 18 IP, 2.50 ERA, 10 BB, 18 K, 1 HR, .185 BAA
    • Ramirez: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 7 BB, 20 K, 4 HR, .215 BAA
    • Bard: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 5 BB, 20 K, 4 HR, .219 BAA
    • Robles: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 4 BB, 18 K, 1 HR, .177 BAA
    • Garcia: 13 IP, 2.08 ERA, 11 BB, 8 K, 0 HR, .159 BAA
    • Allen: 12 IP, 6.00 ERA, 13 BB, 15 K, 4 HR, .245 BAA
    • Anderson: 11 IP, 4.09 ERA, 4 BB, 20 K, 1 HR, .200 BAA
    • Collectively, that group has...
      • 3.10 ERA and .201 BAA (6.7 H9) 
      • In 127 IP, 58 BB (4.1 per 9), 145 K (10.3), and 15 HR (1.1 HR9)

This post isn't really intended to 'defend' the Angels, or even draw any real conclusions - sample size is still small - this is 25% of the season right here - but I was surprised to see just how good the starting nine have been offensively. 
It is also encouraging that they've been able to post a winning record with a starting rotation that bad and in spite of losing 10 of 12 in the middle of it all. 

Bour has already been cast off, replaced with Ohtani, and Stratton replaced with Canning, which should be drastic improvements. 

That’s cool

9.5 games out of 1st

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12 minutes ago, nando714 said:

That’s cool

9.5 games out of 1st

3 games out of the second world card with Heaney and Upton yet to play a game.  

Everyone who believes there was a way to transform the Angels into the best team in baseball please raise your hand....   Why the best team in baseball?  Because that's what the current AL West leader is.

They were never going to be playing for first.  Stop acting as if it was any real likelihood.

 

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35 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

3 games out of the second world card with Heaney and Upton yet to play a game.  

Everyone who believes there was a way to transform the Angels into the best team in baseball please raise your hand....   Why the best team in baseball?  Because that's what the current AL West leader is.

They were never going to be playing for first.  Stop acting as if it was any real likelihood.

 

It’s May and the division is already out 

we’re not better than the tribe, Yankees, Red Sox, twins or rays 

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23 minutes ago, nando714 said:

It’s May and the division is already out 

we’re not better than the tribe, Yankees, Red Sox, twins or rays 

The division title was out in December.   

I agree we aren't better than those teams, but we can be better than our recent history and welcome the team showing improvement... which is what we are seeing.   

Well, some of us are...  

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Since the original post, the Angels have gone 5-5. And since April 5th, they still have a winning record 26-23.

In the last ten games...

  • The Angels 'starters' (including Pena/Trop) have posted a 4.68 ERA across 50 innings, despite Harvey allowing 8 ER in 2.2 IP. Take that out, and it's a 3.44 ERA.
  • The bullpen, including the openers, have thrown 41 IP, allowing 11 HR and a 7.24 ERA.
  • The Angels main starting 9 - Fletcher, Trout, Calhoun, La Stella, Rengifo, Goodwin, Lucroy, Pujols, and Ohtani - have a combined slash of .263/.357/.409/.765, still above the AL average.
  • Entering today they are back to 9.5 GB out of 1st (fell as low as 11 GB) and are 2 GB in the WC race.

 

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That pitching staff is a lot worse than I ever would have anticipated before the season.  The sooner our rotation includes Ohtani and Suarez, along with Pena and Canning, the better.  It may not happen until next year, but the Angels future is bright.  But that might be the worst rotation in baseball. 

Does anyone else think it may be time to go our separate ways with Skaggs and Heaney if they don't figure it out and stay healthy this year?

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crazy streaky season

1-6
7-1
1-9
6-1
1-3
6-3
0-5
5-1

Offense is ranked 8th overall when factoring in ballpark.  Still have the best bb/k rate.  Including apr 5th to now, we have the 5th best offense with a reasonable babip of .291.  

Most of those bad streaks is the rotation getting blown up with a few offensive struggles and pen stumbles.  

Pena, Canning, Heaney and Skaggs is a decent 4.  

That rotation would actually look pretty solid with Keuchel in there.  I know Arte isn't likely to spend the money, but getting him for the rest of the year could make this team pretty damn interesting.  I wouldn't do more than a rest of year deal though.  You'd have to figure it would be at best mid june for him to join the team.   

Harvey being terrible doesn't surprise me.  He was a lotto ticket who could go either way.  I thought Cahill would be a mid 4's guy at worst.  

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I am warming up to bringing in Keuchel for just 2019, after the draft.   Price tag shouldn't be more than $8 million, since he wouldn't be able to pitch in MLB games until post-ASB.    Then they could DFA Harvey, if necessary, and eat half of his 2019 salary.

Crazy enough, the Halos are just two games out of the 2nd WC spot, despite mostly bad starting pitching.  

Indians are regressing, and still can't hit.   Red Sux are a mystery.    A'th many times seem to recover from slow starts.   Dumbpotos are a mess.   Rangers have very little pitching, after Minor, Jurado, and Kelley.

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14 minutes ago, Second Base said:

That pitching staff is a lot worse than I ever would have anticipated before the season.  The sooner our rotation includes Ohtani and Suarez, along with Pena and Canning, the better.  It may not happen until next year, but the Angels future is bright.  But that might be the worst rotation in baseball. 

Does anyone else think it may be time to go our separate ways with Skaggs and Heaney if they don't figure it out and stay healthy this year?

I see no reason to move on from Heaney. He was really reliable last year and pretty durable, and still under control for 2020 and 2021. Hopefully, by that time, we've had some more arms graduate to MLB-readiness, or have seen Canning, Barria, Suarez, and Sandoval all establish themselves. That starts to squeeze guys like Heaney out of the picture or into deadline trade bait. 

Skaggs, though, I'm inclined to hope is traded this July. It's been another mixed bag of a season for him. There's plenty of time for him to rattle off 8-10 average to great starts ahead of the deadline, so there's enough time for him to build good value. 
Next year is his last year of control...so even if he puts it all together this year and next year, our potential benefit from 'peak-Skaggs' may be limited, especially if next year isn't a big push to compete. 

I'd have to think a team like Houston - who is a little limited from the left-side in the rotation, itching to win now, and is currently very reliant on minor-league arms carrying the brunt of the workload for '19-'20 - would match up very well for Skaggs. If they got peak-Skaggs (which they seem to be good at getting out of arms) it sets them up beautifully this year and next and in the playoffs. If they get 4.50 ERA #4 SP Skaggs, it still helps them with the workload of their prospects. They also have a ridiculous amount of prospects who are getting close to the majors and Rule 5 eligibility, and cannot protect them all, and have no issue dealing guys like that to the Angels - see Patrick Sandoval. San Diego and Atlanta similarly feel like they could be in position to trade for Skaggs, as they have the farm depth, and don't need him to be their #1, but to me, Houston is the best fit. 

We probably won't get any of the Astros top prospects - maybe one  (Garrett Stubbs?) - but the Angels could rake in a number of guys from the next tier down that the Astros could lose to Rule 5 or are blocked, guys who would help the Angels 2020-2025. Guys like Derek Fisher, Taylor Jones, Alex Di Goti, Drew Ferguson - guys who aren't Top 30 for the Astros but would be Top 20-30 for us - could also help replenish our own farm should we deal a couple guys away for a Boyd, Stroman, Ray, etc.

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There have been a few posts like this over the years. Mid season streaks mean nothing. It’s the end result that matters, which is always a mediocre record and the team missing the playoffs. 

One poster said it best when they said the Titanic was a pretty nice cruise apart from the iceberg. 

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