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wopphil

Mike Leake

58 posts in this topic

Seems like he would be an ideal acquisition for us. He is effectively an $11 mil player through next season (though with a $5 mil buyout on an option). The Mariners would probably eat some of that.  He wouldn't cost Adell, and shouldn't cost Marsh.

As for performance, it doesnt appear he has missed a start the last three years. Over that time, he has a 101 ERA+ and his FIP is nearly identical to his ERA. 

He would go a long way toward stabilizing the rotation, with minimal risk.

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And I should add, he is capable of dominating a game. 6 times this season he has gone 7 or more innings and given up 2 or fewer earned runs. Without looking it up, I am guessing our starters have about 3 such games combined.

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Posted (edited)

Not interested purely because I wouldn’t want to do anything that possibly helps the Mariners or Dipoto. If he were on another team, he’d be a reasonable target. 

Edit: will they eat cash and take Baldoquin?

Edited by totdprods

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2 minutes ago, Jay said:

By definition, if Dipoto makes a trade, it hurts Seattle, right?

 

My thoughts exactly. Why not hurt the Mariners?

Honestly, I have so much more confidence in Eppler's ability to evaluate and develop talent than DiPoto that I think it creates a huge opportunity. We still have a lot of guys he brought into the system and presumably likes a lot. I'm sure Eppler is less high on those guys. And DiPoto is higher on them than the rest of the league is too. Seems like a great trading partner.

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8 minutes ago, Jay said:

By definition, if Dipoto makes a trade, it hurts Seattle, right?

 

1 minute ago, eaterfan said:

My thoughts exactly. Why not hurt the Mariners?

Honestly, I have so much more confidence in Eppler's ability to evaluate and develop talent than DiPoto that I think it creates a huge opportunity. We still have a lot of guys he brought into the system and presumably likes a lot. I'm sure Eppler is less high on those guys. And DiPoto is higher on them than the rest of the league is too. Seems like a great trading partner.


Arguable that taking on Mike Leake would actually hurt the Mariners. 

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10 minutes ago, Lou said:

What does the trade simulator say?

Hahahahah. 

Leake is worth 3.7 trade values, or approximately one Michael Hermosillo (3.8), Tommy La Stella (3.6), or Patrick Sandoval (3) plus Oliver Ortega, Nonie Williams, or Dillon Peters (all 0.7)

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1 minute ago, totdprods said:

 


Arguable that taking on Mike Leake would actually hurt the Mariners. 

That's a different issue. My point is that if you believe it does (well that you're getting the better end of the trade) do it. Doesn't matter who you're trading with. But in this particular instance I think Jerry is particularly susceptible to being duped.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

That's a different issue. My point is that if you believe it does (well that you're getting the better end of the trade) do it. Doesn't matter who you're trading with. But in this particular instance I think Jerry is particularly susceptible to being duped.

If the M's ate some cash (or took Cozart, who Jerry tried acquiring multiple times) and took Jahmai Jones back, I'd do it. 

He's due $15m next year, and a $5m buyout for 2021, lest his $18m option is picked up.

On the fantabulous baseball trade simulator, that would be Cozart, Jones (-5.8) for Leake (3.7)

Edited by totdprods

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There are only so many potential targets that are both available and affordable. And unfortunately, the Angels probably need to add three arms from outside the organization. I don't think we have the luxury of being overly picky.

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10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

If the M's ate some cash (or took Cozart, who Jerry tried acquiring multiple times) and took Jahmai Jones back, I'd do it. 

He's due $15m next year, and a $5m buyout for 2021, lest his $18m option is picked up.

On the fantabulous baseball trade simulator, that would be Cozart, Jones (-5.8) for Leake (3.7)

You could get him cheaply (in prospects) if you take on most, or all, of his contract...No benefit to DiPoto to take on a dead money in Cozart....a middling prospect and take on all his deal might do it....

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, DMVol said:

You could get him cheaply (in prospects) if you take on most, or all, of his contract...No benefit to DiPoto to take on a dead money in Cozart....a middling prospect and take on all his deal might do it....

Just noticed that St. Louis is paying $5m this season and $4m next season for Leake.

So his '19 salary remaining is probably around $3m
His '20 salary is $11m
He'll likely have his option bought out the following year, another $5m.

So he's around $19m across this year and next for an acquiring team - still too much money for the Angels to take on entirely, given their other needs. 
So, they'd have to get Seattle to eat some dough (which they've been willing to do) and surrender better prospects, or pawn some off back onto them..

Cozart is probably owed around $16m left, between rest of this year and next - a one-for-one swap isn't nearly feasible, but Cozart plus Jones and Ward, Dipoto's 1st and 2nd round picks from his last Angels draft, maybe with Seattle kicking in a few mil to even out the money between Zack and Leake, could balance this out.

Angels would be taking a gamble letting Ward go to Seattle, but he's also one of the easier prospects to part with. 
Instead of Cozart stealing playing time away from anyone in '20, they can turn it over to Fletcher, La Stella, and Rengifo, unimpeded. 
Instead of paying Cozart $12.5m, they'd be paying Leake the same money to hopefully offer up 30 GS of 4.00 ERA at the back. 

Mariners get Cozart as a UT IF (should he stay healthy) for a one-year gamble - they can flip him if he somehow winds up productive - and Dipoto gets two of his guys back, which he loves, as projects. 
Jones may or may not rebound - he can go to AAA Tacoma next year and join the Mariners' 40-man and get some 2B/OF action, at least giving them some defense and speed. 
Ward gets full-time LF/1B work - they don't care about defense - and ample playing time to try and become an average MLB hitter.

I think I'd consider that deal - on the surface, it doesn't look appealing for the Angels, but once you realize that no Cozart means increased playing time for our young infielders, and that you've replaced Cozart's money on the books to fill one of our two SP needs for basically the price of Ward+Jones, a potentially failed prospect and a potential 4A player, it's not bad at all. I'd like to aim a lot higher than Mike Leake for the secondary SP we need to acquire, but if it allowed us to cut bait with Cozart and only expend two risky prospects for a safe 200 innings of average ball...that might be alright.

Good post. I hated this idea at first but digging deeper found some ways for it to make sense. Leake's got good GB% too, and the Mariners defense is garbage. I could see him benefiting with Simmons-plus back there.

Edited by totdprods

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Lou said:

There is no way anyone is going to be interested in Cozart

It's basically the same concept as when the Phillies took Matt Harrison from the Rangers in the Hamels deal, or when the Dodgers took Bailey on in the Puig deal. 

It wasn't interest in the player - it was balancing out money, roster space, and playing time for both teams to get the players they wanted in return in this case, Ward and Jones, for Leake.
Cozart's just a paper aspect to the deal, and maybe he comes to ST healthy and plays some UT IF defense for them. Not likely, but if any team would have interest, it would be Jerry since he tried trading for Cozart numerous times before, and that tends to be a thing of his.

Seattle isn't trading Leake to the Angels for Cozart...they're trading him to open up some money and get prospects, and taking back Cozart could be a part of that in order to facilitate the money and prospects they want. It has nothing to do with their interest in him.

Edited by totdprods

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1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Hahahahah. 

Leake is worth 3.7 trade values, or approximately one Michael Hermosillo (3.8), Tommy La Stella (3.6), or Patrick Sandoval (3) plus Oliver Ortega, Nonie Williams, or Dillon Peters (all 0.7)

Hermasillo? Sure. We have plenty of good young outfielders.
Marsh? I wouldn't say no to that, I would say Hell No!

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1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Just noticed that St. Louis is paying $5m this season and $4m next season for Leake.

So his '19 salary remaining is probably around $3m
His '20 salary is $11m
He'll likely have his option bought out the following year, another $5m.

I would prefer we go after Mike Minor or Lance Lynn. They are both better than Leake and would cost less than $16 M next year.

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3 hours ago, Jay said:

By definition, if Dipoto makes a trade, it hurts Seattle, right?

 

Jerry's trades while being with the Mariners actually haven't been that bad. Adam Lind for Freddy Peralta sucked. 

People will likely bring up Chris Taylor, but he never really showed ANY promise in the Mariner uniform ... so possibly props to the Dodgers staff for making him shine. 

He absolutely slayed the Mets in the Cano / Diaz trade though. 

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