Angelsjunky

Bregman for MVP

128 posts in this topic

10 minutes ago, floplag said:

Negligible in what sense?  Would it impact the playoff race, no, but you could argue we would be much worse and might be in line for a top 5 draft pick.
Watching this team right now i wonder if we are actually as close as i hoped we would be, we legit just look terrible, i wonder if one or two starters really makes us anything for '20 at times. 

So you're saying we're better off without Trout. Interesting point.

 

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3 hours ago, Kevinb said:

Would they? Who knows? Also I don't know why you are surprised by this I have said this in previous years. I think winning matters you can disagree with me but I have been consistent year after year. 

It matters less and less each year as the voters change their opinion. 

The Angels were bad in 2016 and Trout wasn’t as good then as he is now, and he won the MVP.

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8 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

It matters less and less each year as the voters change their opinion. 

The Angels were bad in 2016 and Trout wasn’t as good then as he is now, and he won the MVP.

He had an amazing August and very good September in 2016. In the last few weeks, he has dropped .2 bWAR, and he has missed several games (and counting) in September. 

Honest question: do voters care about performance down the stretch, or do you look at the overall picture?

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6 minutes ago, SoPas Angel said:

He had an amazing August and very good September in 2016. In the last few weeks, he has dropped .2 bWAR, and he has missed several games (and counting) in September. 

Honest question: do voters care about performance down the stretch, or do you look at the overall picture?

I don’t think September performance matters much. I’ve never really cared. I just look at season totals. 

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35 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

It matters less and less each year as the voters change their opinion. 

The Angels were bad in 2016 and Trout wasn’t as good then as he is now, and he won the MVP.

Just like wins/losses for the Cy Young.  But if a voter were to have team success as a big factor, we can make fun of him but he'd still have a reasonable case because there is no BBWAA definition for most valuable.

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13 hours ago, Kevinb said:

Eventually winning matters. Trouts the best player on the planet. But finishing 30 games behind the first place team in the division means something. How valuable is someone if all the WAR in the world doesn’t actually equate to wins.  

this.

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3 hours ago, Second Base said:

Richard Justice sucked long before this article. And we go through this every year. It isn't even the MVP award anymore. It's which player other than Trout can we give this award to?

They do this every single freakin' year.

The years that Trout has won the MVP aren't years where he was the best. He's there best every year. No, the years where Trout wins MVP are the years where no one else comes close enough.

It's completely unfair to Trout, that the media every year simply goes out of their way to pick someone other than him just to generate news. 

Trout should have 5 MVP awards by now.

It's the same as with Lebron in the NBA (up until recently at least). Everyone knows he's the best player, but they're just looking for any excuse to vote for another player out of boredom/fatigue/etc

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2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

It matters less and less each year as the voters change their opinion. 

The Angels were bad in 2016 and Trout wasn’t as good then as he is now, and he won the MVP.

I totally get it matters less and less each year the more people are stat dependent, and I am not disagreeing with them. I think Trout is more than likely the MVP, being unbiased he's the best player in baseball on a terrible team. That being said I do get why people and why I have this view that at some point the entire reason we play sports is to win. Trout for whatever reason has been on a terrible to mediocre team the last 4 years. Winning to me matters, but at the end of the day I think Trout is far and away the best player this year and will win the MVP unless he goes on a tailspin/doesn't play many games in September and Bregman goes on an absolute tear and makes it more even. 

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Bregman is super good at baseball.

The Astro’s are super good at baseball.

Mike Trout is superer good at baseball.

The Angels aren’t good at baseball.

Mike Trout is the MVP, to beat him you have to have better numbers or you personally need to drag your team to the playoffs.   Bregman hasn’t done that this year.  

 

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7 hours ago, Jay said:

This is a good point and I think all the stats including WAR will back this up.

However for the purpose of the MVP award, an argument can be made that the Astros are in a race with NYY for home-field advantage in the playoffs. Maybe a more compelling argument could be made if the A's were nipping on their heels in the division but the loss of Bregman would have an impact on the Astros at this point in the season. So that makes him very valuable to the Astros. If the Angels were to lose Trout the impact would be negligible.

 

Losing Trout:  Lets say 9 wins (using WAR stats)  Puts this team at 56 wins with with 16 games to play.  The Angels would be in the midst of their worst season in franchise history, 3 games behind the Mariners for last place in our division, and very likely could be a 100 loss season. 

Now losing Bregman:  Lets say 8 wins.  Puts the Astros at 87 wins (still in first place) tied for 3rd with Tampa Bay for the best record in American league.  The loss of Trout has a far greater impact.  I understand the argument that MVP should go to a player in the playoffs.  In fact, I agree with with in most cases.    However, if a player on a losing team is so much dominant than the rest of the field (like Trout) than an exception could be made.   

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17 minutes ago, Lou said:

What is the difference in their WAR?

What, am I your lapdog?

OK, fine. The article states it, but:

bWAR: 8.1 Trout, 7.2 Bregman

fWAR: 8.6 Trout, 7.1 Bregman

So we're talking about 1 to 1.5 WAR.

I personally think contention does matter - it is the one part old fashioned in me. But the question is, how much? For me Bregman would have to be safely within -1 fWAR, to even consider it, and -0.5 or better to be a serious candidate. 

So the scenario where I feel Bregman "should" get the MVP--or at least it isn't a travesty if he does--is if Trout loses more time and/or struggles, maybe finishing around 9.0 WAR, and Bregman remains hot and finishes 8.5 WAR. At that point I think Bregman winning it is justified.

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4 hours ago, SoPas Angel said:

He had an amazing August and very good September in 2016. In the last few weeks, he has dropped .2 bWAR, and he has missed several games (and counting) in September. 

Honest question: do voters care about performance down the stretch, or do you look at the overall picture?

Games in April count the same in the standings as games in September.

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2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Games in April count the same in the standings as games in September.

signed,

teams that are 2 games out in April and 28 games out in September.

 

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24 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Games in April count the same in the standings as games in September.

I agree with that and it sounds like Jeff does as well. I was just remembering 2004 when Vlad won MVP and quite a few people said it was due to his performance down the stretch, when he hit .371 with 10 homers in September. So I was wondering if the inverse is true: if guys can win it based on their September performance, can they lose it for playing poorly in September?

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